The NBA playoffs begin in just over two weeks. Let’s preview a series against every potential first-round opponent for the Pacers, starting with the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat (41-36) currently sit at seventh in the Eastern standings, two spots behind the Pacers. If the season were to inexplicably end right now they’d be facing off against the two-seeded Celtics. But this is the reality, and Miami has five games remaining on the schedule, three of which are against tanking teams, and the other two against relatively tougher opponents: the Thunder and Raptors. The Heat could conceivably slot up to the sixth spot, currently occupied by the confused Wizards, but anything higher is improbable.
The Pacers could potentially be in that three-seed driver seat and face the Heat in the three-six matchup. But there’s no telling. The Sixers are currently on a ten-game winning streak. The Cavs have won three straight and, let’s be honest, over the last decade no single man has done more damage to the hearts of Pacer fans than LeBron James. But the Pacers have the tiebreaker over both squads, so if all three end the season as record triplets, the Pacers get that third seed.
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So how favorable of a matchup for Indiana is Pacers v Heat?
The Pacers tied the season series 2-2, with a blowout win in November, a close loss in January, a loss in the third game of the season, and last week’s overtime W in Indy. The Heat have lost three of their last five games, including Saturday night’s overtime loss at home to the lottery-bound Nets. Yikes.
But the Heat are not a team to overlook. Head Coach Erik Spoelstra has a deep bench of talent to work with, and the Heat are currently sixth in Defensive Rating (106.4, per Basketball-Reference) and hold opposing teams to just 45 percent FG shooting, also sixth in the league. They dismantled the Cavs just last week, 98-79, and their overall play in the calendar year 2018 – or, post-Dion Waiters injury – has been pretty damn good.
So how do the starters match up?
Point guard matchup: Darren Collison v Goran Dragic
Dragic was a first-time All-Star in 2018 due to a series of Eastern Conference-based injuries, but at 17.4 points per game and 4.8 assists on the season, Dragic, just a month shy of 32, is playing as well as ever. He was crucial in leading his native Slovenia to the EuroBasket title last summer and hasn’t been messing around for some time now.
But I still like our guy. DC shoots nearly ten percentage points better from three than Goran – 45.1 percent to Dragic’s 36.6 percent. DC’s total win shares are at a nice 7.2 compared to Goran’s 5.1 – and DC has played eight fewer games on the season. Both players are negatives on the defensive end, but Dragic more so than DC – in fact, on/off numbers suggest the Heat are better without him on the court.
(Hopefully, instead of Goran, we get GROAN Dragic. RIGHT!?)
Advantage: Pacers
Shooting Guard Matchup: Victor Oladipo v Tyler Johnson
This one is easy.
Tyler Johnson’s nickname is, apparently, “Bumpy”, and it’s no secret on the internet that he looks strikingly similar to Mose Schrute. This is Bumpy’s fourth season in the league and the first in which he’s gotten a chance to start a significant chunk of games, but other than a slight uptick in effective field goal percentage, most other numbers are all down.
Meanwhile, Vic has twice as many total win shares (7.9 to 4) and is a lock for this year’s Most Improved award. Feathery is the exact opposite of Bumpy. Tyler Johnson is a perfectly average NBA player, and luckily for us, Vic is not. He is far better
(Significant) Advantage: Pacers
Small Forward Matchup: Bojan Bogdanovic v Josh Richardson
JRich has had an impressive third year in the league, starting all 76 games for the Heat so far and improving his effective field goal percentage from 46 percent last year to 53 percent. The 6’6″ former second-round pick is averaging 1.5 steals per game, but his overall defense has been slightly above average.
The question regarding Bojan, however, is which Bojan are we getting? His per game averages are all up this year from last – 14.3 PPG, 47.4 FG percentage, 39.5 percent from deep – but we’ve all seen how he can disappear (or how he can actively work against the team with late-game boneheaded-ness). His no-show in the playoffs last year for the Wizards is also troubling to consider.
This one could go either way. Bojan has more playoff experience, but barely – 19 games to JRich’s 14 (all during his 2016 rookie season) – and their Win Shares are nearly identical (Bogey’s 5.2 v JRich’s 5). Richardson has the athleticism advantage, but hopefully, it comes down to more than that. If I’m flipping a coin, I’m fixing it to come up Pacers.
Advantage: Pacers, I guess
Power Forward Matchup: Thaddeus Young v James Johnson
The James Johnson renaissance has continued into 2018, but Thad has quietly had another solid season for Indiana even with some slight downturns statistically – what’s with the 59.5 free-throw percentage, Thad? But Thad’s value really shows up in the On/Off numbers: with him in the lineup, the Pacers see a 3.2 uptick in Offensive Rating and opposing teams drop 3.7 points per 100 possessions.
James “Bloodsport” Johnson’s On/Offs aren’t so good. Opposing teams are 3.3 points per 100 better with Bloodsport on the court, and his offensive impact is negligible. Again, Johnson likely has the athleticism advantage, but Thad’s basketball IQ is too high for that to be much of an issue for Indiana.
Advantage: Pacers
Center matchup: Myles Turner v Hassan Whiteside
Here is a matchup that would’ve terrified Pacers fans just two years ago, but Whiteside’s playing time has taken a dip (25.6 minutes per game), he’s played just 49 games thanks to injuries (sore left knee, left hip pain). The oft-disgruntled seven-footer is especially grumpy heading into the playoffs. But expect Hassan to average large rebounding numbers against Myles (and please, no ‘trade Myles!’ tirades @ the 8points9seoncds Twitter account when this inevitably happens). Expect him to occasionally frustrate Turner, but opposing teams actually see .5 points per 100 upticks in Offensive Rating with him on the court. He slightly hurts his team defensively, hence the shrinking minutes.
Meanwhile, Myles’ presence on the court is impressive: opposing teams are 3.6 points worse with him out there and the Pacers’ offensive gets a 2.5 point boost. But don’t expect those numbers to bear out exactly like that during a Pacers v Heat series. Whiteside may have just an inch on Myles, but Count Blockula has twenty pounds more muscle and it’s likely to show up in the box score. Whether it shows up in actual wins, though, seems dubious.
Advantage: Pacers
Pacers Bench v Heat Bench
Things get scary when the reserves enter the game. You may have heard Dwyane Wade is back home in Miami, and while he’s far past his prime, he’s still “Father Prime” and the Heat are still a better team with him on the court. Then there’s Wayne Ellington, liable to go off from deep at any moment. Kelly Olynyk, who’s definitely the kind of person who comes to mind when one thinks of South Beach, already has a few impressive playoff performances under his hair-clip-ridden-belt. Rookie Bam Adebayo and 21-year-old wing Justise Winslow will see some burn and are capable of contributing.
The Pacers will continue to hope the defensive shortcomings of Domantas Sabonis can be forgiven by his scoring and rebounding. Lance Stephenson came to national prominence against the Heat, so, hopefully, he can channel some of that Good Lance magic and the Pacers will get a few game-changing plays from him. Either way, his ability to hype the Fieldhouse crowd is invaluable. Cory Joseph has been solid, but the Pacers are still better offensively without him on the court. Trevor Booker’s status after last week’s ankle injury is still uncertain, but if he’s a no-go, Big Al and Medium Leaf are gonna have to step up. GRIII’s impact in his few games back has been fine, but it’d be nice to get more than “fine”. Hopefully, his Wolverines making it far in the NCAA tournament will inspire him to bust out some heroics for another blue and maize-ish team.
Advantage: Heat
Coaches: Nate McMillan v Erik Spoelstra
Spoelstra’s name has been thrown around for Coach of the Year for managing this odd group of talent to an impressive 41 – 36 record, largely without leading scorer Dion Waiters. McMillan, whose job was not super secure coming into the season, has even gotten buzz for CoY – albeit a quieter buzz – and the Pacers have also kept afloat amidst injuries to Vic, Myles, and DC for stretches. But Spoelstra is going to the nod here because of RANGZ and because he’s done what he’s done without one Oladipo-level player on his squad.
Advantage: Heat
Series Prediction
If I could pick the Pacers’ first-round playoff opponent, I’d pick the Heat. The Sixers scare me as much as their fans annoy me. The Cavs have Pacer-killer LeBron James and our fondness for George Hill might confuse us too much. The Wizards look weak now but it’s always questionable to count out explosive scorers like John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Bucks have Giannis, and Giannis is frightening.
Next: Thaddeus Young’s consistency is key to the Indiana Pacers success
The Heat won’t let us by easily. I bet the games are mostly close – maybe an overtime or two – but the Pacers manage one blowout W in Indy. I’ll also count on one late-game Pacers meltdown that makes the series feel like it’s jeopardy, only for the Pacers to answer with some strong, series-clinching wins.
Pacers in six.