Let’s examine how the final push for homecourt will look on the schedule for the Indiana Pacers and their competitors. With three teams fighting for the last two seeds that have homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, it should get interesting.
With just a little over a week to go in the NBA season, we have officially entered into the homestretch, meaning we are about to get some FUN basketball. The Pacers have far exceeded expectations this season after many projected them to finish with a top-five pick after trading away superstar Paul George. But after an incredible season behind first-time all-star Victor Oladipo, the Pacers are in the thick of things in the Eastern Conference, and could potentially finish as high as the third seed, depending on how the rest of their schedule plays out.
With an extremely tight race between the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers, the young and scary, up-and-coming Philadelphia 76ers, and the Washington Wizards, each game from here on out is extremely crucial for the Pacers (and all of these teams, frankly).
Let’s take a look at the three teams Indiana will need to outdo over the next week and a half if they have any shot of getting home court advantage in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Cleveland Cavaliers (47-30) – currently the #3 Seed
Remaining schedule:
April 3rd – Toronto Raptors (48% win probability)
April 5th – Washington Wizards (71% win probability)
April 6th – @ Philadelphia 76ers (22% win probability)
April 9th – @ New York Knicks (63% win probability)
April 11th – New York Knicks (84% win probability)
Games against playoff teams: 3
Games against .500+ teams: 3
Number of wins (more than Cleveland) needed for the Pacers to catch the Cavs: 1
Projected finish: 3-2 (Final projected record: 50-32)
The Pacers currently sit just one game back of the Cleveland Cavaliers, with each team having 5 games remaining. Both teams are projected to finish their final five games at 3-2, meaning the Cavaliers would maintain a one-game lead in the standings heading into the playoffs. The Pacers own the tiebreaker over the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Philadelphia 76ers (46-30) – currently the #4 Seed
Remaining schedule:
April 3rd: Brooklyn Nets (89% win probability)
April 4th: @ Detroit Pistons (51% win probability)
April 6th: Cleveland Cavaliers (78% win probability)
April 8th: Dallas Mavericks (88% win probability)
April 10th: @ Atlanta Hawks (78% win probability)
April 11th: Milwaukee Bucks (72% win probability)
Games against projected playoff teams: 2
Games against .500+ teams: 2
Number of wins (more than Philadelphia) needed to catch 76ers: 1
Projected finish: 6-0 (Final projected record: 52-30)
The Pacers are just half a game back of the Philadelphia 76ers, arguably the hottest team in the NBA and winners of 10 straight games. While the Sixers currently are without Joel Embiid, who suffered a facial fracture last week and is likely to be out through some of the opening round of the playoffs, they haven’t slowed down, winning two in a row by 10 or more points. With a projected 6-0 finish to the season, the Sixers would end up with the 3 seed, and would most likely get the Washington Wizards in the first round. The Pacers own the tiebreaker over the Philadelphia 76ers, fortunately.
Because the 76ers and Cavaliers play each other April 6th, the Pacers control their own destiny for the number four seed. If the Pacers win out, they will get homecourt advantage.
Washington Wizards (46-30) – currently the #6 Seed
Remaining schedule:
April 3rd: @ Houston Rockets (10% win probability)
April 5th: @ Cleveland Cavaliers (29% win probability)
April 6th: Atlanta Hawks (80% win probability)
April 10th: Boston Celtics (49% win probability)
April 11th: @ Orlando Magic (57% win probability)
Games against projected playoff teams: 3
Games against .500+ teams: 3
Number of Wizards wins (more than Indiana) needed to catch thePacers: 4
Projected finish: 2-3 (Final projected record: 44-38)
The Wizards have struggled down the stretch of the season after being the four seed in the Eastern Conference after the All-Star break. They will have their work cut out for them if they have any chance of surpassing the Pacers, 76ers, or Cleveland Cavaliers. With a projected 2-3 finish in their final five games, the Wizards would end up as the six seed and would likely meet the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round. Unfortunately, the Wizards own the tiebreaker over the Pacers, meaning they have a slightly higher chance of catching Indiana, though the chance is still low.
Next: Post-Game Grades: Pacers stay perfect on road trip, win tight bout over Clippers
With the toughest schedule remaining out of teams seeded three through six, Indiana will certainly have their work cut out for them. If they have any shot at playing (up to) four games at Bankers Life Field House in the first round, they will need to play exceptionally. But after beating four teams with winning records over their last five games, there won’t be a team more battle tested than the Pacers down the stretch. Will that benefit them in the push for the playoffs and ultimately the postseason itself? We’ll see.
*All win probabilities courtesy of FiveThirtyEight