With 21 games down and 61 still to go, the Indiana Pacers have completed the first quarter of the season. Here are some observations and lessons learned thus far.
On October 17, the Indiana Pacers were winless and some didn’t expect the Pacers to do much better than that. There were two bozos that were forced upon Indiana in a pilfering for Paul George. There was a Croatian cast-off, the offense looked like a mess, and the only player on the roster you felt good about was Myles Turner.
My how things have changed.
You’re now feeling pretty good about everyone. That Croatian cast-off (his Mom calls him Bojan) is the team’s second-leading scorer. Those two bozos (Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis) have garnered rave reviews. The offense is one of the premier ones in the entire Association: second in points (108.9), third in field-goal percentage (.480), fifth in effective field-goal percentage (.539), third in turnover percentage (13.2) and first in three-point shooting (.409). Oh, and I’m guessing few of you are shedding many tears over Oklahoma City’s dysfunctional 8-11 start.
A lot of good things happened in the season’s first quarter. These are a few of our favorite ones.
Thaddeus Young: Super Glue
Far too few liters of digital ink have been spilled on Thaddeus Young’s behalf.
Despite not leading the Pacers in — or even being second — in many statistical categories, Young just might be the most valuable Pacer this season. Now there are other contenders, Oladipo has been stunning — we’ll talk more about him in a few paragraphs — and Sabonis’ passing has been nearly sublime, but it’s Young’s utility that has held this team together.
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If you peruse the list of the Pacers’ best two-man lineups on the NBA’s limitless database, you’ll find Thad Young’s name in each of the top three. Young’s plus/minus rating trails just Collison’s and Oladipo’s. Then the gulf between how Young plays in wins (+15) and losses (-12.8) is a near seismic 27.8 points, just 4.3 less than Oladipo’s 32.1.
That Young’s performance has nearly as much impact as a potential All-Star’s, speaks volumes to his contributions to the team.
But traditional stats don’t properly. The NBA’s hustle stats come closest: where Young is second in the league with 3.8 deflections per game, 16th in loose ball recovers and tied for 26th in contested shots. Young is just one of the better players in the league in the difficult-to-quantify, being at the right place at the right time.
Young is a key cog in the Pacers’ prolific offense, keeping the ball moving and proving that he might be a value asset for the Pacers going forward.
Victor Oladipo is playing like an All-Star
If Indiana could just schedule the Thunder and Magic, Oladipo would have MVP numbers – 30 points, .606 FGP, 6.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.3 steals and 2.7 blocks in the three games against his former teams- but since you can’t just play two teams 41 times a piece, Oladipo will just have to settle with the most dazzling beginning to any season in his basketball life.
The question facing Oladipo before the season was:
is he worth Paul George
, can he step up into a starring role. So far the answer is an emphatic, “yes”. Oladipo has scored between 20 and 29 points 13 times this season, he did so 18 times all last year and has done so 65 times in his career before this season. Now he’s on pace to score in that much 52 times this season.
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His shooting slash line (FG%/3P%/FT%) 47.4/46.2/79.6 is one of the better slash lines among contenders for the All-Star backcourt. Oladipo’s 23 ppg is 6.7 points higher than his lifetime average, while his 102.9 defensive rating is the best on the team. Oladipo is both the Pacers best offensive and defensive player.
In the NBA at large, if you look a John Hollinger’s numbers, Oladipo is among the NBA’s elite shooting guards. His “Player Efficiency Rating” (21.8) is second in the Association among shooting guards and fourth among guards overall; his “Value Added” (111.5) is first among shooting guards and trails just James Harden, Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving among guards overall. 20 players in the NBA scored at least a 20 in PER and 100 in VA.
All this means, Oladipo is an All-Star or at least playing like one.
Normally when a player outperforms their average as much as Oladipo has, you’d expect them to regress back to the mean. However, this doesn’t look like a fluke. Oladipo’s role with the Pacers in completely different from his previous professional stops. He didn’t have the supporting cast, or fan support in Orlando that he does in Indiana, and he rarely got the ball in Oklahoma City. Plus it normally takes guards until their 25-year-old season before they round into shape, and this is Oladipo’s age 25 season.
Pacers’ may be seeing who Oladipo is. And if Oladipo is one of the better shooting guards in the NBA, then the Pacers are very close to having that ever important one-two punch (at least) that’s a prerequisite to contend.
Myles Turner is not playing like an All-Star…
…at least not yet.
Turner’s playing well, actually it’s on pace with what he did last year (15 points/7 rebounds in 2016/17, 14 pts/ 7 rebs in 2017/18). But “well” is not “great”.
And unfortunately, he’s being outplayed by other young centers like New York’s Kristaps Porzingis, Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid, and Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns. Even Sabonis has outplayed Turner at times.
Hoops Habit
This doesn’t mean Indiana should trade Turner, or that he will never fulfill the burgeoning hype that was developing this past summer. It more means that he’s still 21, and his prime is till three years off from even thinking about beginning.
Turner’s problem is that he’s been inconsistent this season. He’s scored 18 or more five times, he’s also scored 10 or under five times. He’s grabbed 8 or more rebounds six times, he’s snagged 5 and under five times. All three times he’s scored 20 he’s either followed it up with missing the next game or scoring in single-figures. His production has just been helter-skelter.
Something that seems to happen to Turner is his offense is in a better rhythm when he establishes himself in the post first. Once he does that, when he steps out to the perimeter his shot tends to be truer. But when he does the reverse, he tends to take himself out of the game by inadvertently taking himself out of the game, not only by missing, but he’s also not grabbing rebounds since he’s 20 feet away from the basket.
It might behoove him to try to establish himself inside early in the game, especially before Sabonis checks in. Indiana’s offense and lack-luster rebounding will benefit from it.
A Playoff Rotation takes shape and other Pacers stuff
- Nate McMillan has fallen in love with these eight: Oladipo, Collison, Bogdanovic, Young and Turner as starters with Sabonis, Lance Stephenson and Cory Joseph as reserves. It’s a good flexible group that can go both big (playing Turner and Sabonis together) and small (by…uh…not playing them together). This isn’t a complete rotation, Glenn Robinson III will join it when he recovers from injury. So there’s a great chance that this potent unit will still get better.
- I don’t have an answer to this, but the Pacers aren’t a good rebounding team. It’s not an irrational leap in logic to assume a team with two promising big men would be at least average on the glass. The Pacers aren’t. Their 42.7 rebounds per game tie Detroit for 20th in the league. Establish yourself in the post, Myles!
- Collison has been brilliant in the passing game. He’s 13th in assists (6.6, Chris Paul has the most with 10.8) and he’s protecting the ball, his 4.10 assist/turnover ratio is 11th best. And his defense has also improved. While a 105 defensive rating is just average, it’s way better than the near league-worst defense he played last year.
- Speaking of defense, The Pacers have improved to 17th in defensive rating, which is basically average. Indiana flashes the occasional brilliant individual defensive plays, which is nice. I still cringe thinking that holding a team to under 105 is a good defensive night. C’est la vie.
Eastern Conference Playoff Outlook
Still very early.
There are seven net positive teams in the East: Boston 7.8, Toronto 7.0, Washington 3.8, Philadelphia 2.2, Detroit 2.2, Indiana 1.1 and Cleveland 0.7. Not surprisingly each of those seven have winning records.
So far the East hasn’t seen much separation, with the exception of Atlanta and Chicago who are both dreadful. Boston is still the class of the East, and that will likely continue all season long, but behind them, second place Detroit and tenth place Milwaukee are separated by 3.5 games.
Cleveland has begun to turn it around, mostly because LeBron James is nearly unstoppable, which helps them overcome their dreadful defense and rebounding. It just feels like a matter of time before the Cavs and Pacers run down the resilient Pistons. Milwaukee needs to find a post player otherwise they’re going to be stuck at .500 forever. I base this on nothing but common sense, they would be a good fit for DeAndre Jordan.
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If I’m picking eight playoff teams: Boston, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Indiana, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee, would be the eight.