Indiana Pacers Preview Series: The Central Division

Jonathan Matthes

MILWAUKEE, WI - OCTOBER 04: John Henson #31 of the Milwaukee Bucks jumps against Myles Turner #33 of the Indiana Pacers to start a preseason game at the BMO Harris Bradley Center on October 4, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

With the Indiana Pacers’ 2017-18 season fast approaching, let’s take a peek at how the Pacers might stack up in the Central Division.

The Central Division has some intrigue to it. It could have as many as four playoff teams or as few as two. It has a colossus with a crumbling foundation and a team so far ahead of its time that it could either be soaring toward a bright future or stuck in neutral; it has a supposedly terrible team that might actually be pretty good and a supposedly good team that might actually be pretty bad; and it has a team that will make a bold case for being the worst in the Association.

Now that ~~long~~ sentence might be completely accurate, but it could also be completely wrong, such is the hazards of predictions. It’s impossible to predict injuries (unless it involves Jabari Parker or Derrick Rose), or any of random happenings that could, uh, happen. But, let’s throw caution to the wind, predictions are fun. Here’s one for each team in alphabetical order and a glimpse into how the Pacers may fit into the mix.

CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 25: Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Denzel Valentine

CHICAGO BULLS

2016-17 Record: 41-41, 4th in Central, 8th in the East

Projected Starters: PG Jerian Grant, SG Justin Holiday (Zach LaVine), SF Paul Zipser, PF Nikola Mirotic, C Robin Lopez. Rotation Pieces: Bobby Portis, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Denzel Valentine. Head Coach: Fred Hoiberg 83-81 in third year with Chicago. Average age of core: 24.1.

The Chicago Bulls are in a tremendous -and by tremendous, I mean almost perfect- position to be one of the three worst teams in the NBA, thereby earning one of those three golden tickets in the Draft Lottery.

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Being in contention for that number 1 pick seems to be the Bulls motivation. They only have two players on their roster that are legitimate starters and even then they are far from perfect. Zach LaVine will begin the year dinged-up and pairs his improving offense with atrocious defense; while the odds are that Robin Lopez will being playing for someone else come February.

The rest of the roster is a smorgasbord of role players that Chicago will sample from and see which they’d like to keep for 2018-19. But even then it’s not clear how many will be keepers on a good team. Taking the rookie Lauri Markkanen out of the equation -because he hasn’t played a game yet- the average VORP (value over a replacement player) of his likely 12 other teammates was a whopping 0.2 last season. Barely squeaking over basketball’s Mendoza line.

Success for the Bulls won’t be measured in the win column -there won’t me much there anyway- it will be measured by letting it’s gaggle of youngsters compete against each other and maybe a couple gems will sift to the top. Their only position that seems to have a direct pecking order is at Center, where Lopez is the starter and Cristiano Felicio is his backup and heir apparent.

But for confidence in the future to grow some players are going to have to take major leaps. Their best 3-point shooters will be two newcomers (LaVine and Markkanen), everyone else trailed Jerian Grant’s very average .366. They’ll carry five point guards who posted an uninspiring 1.7/1 Assist/Turnover ratio a year ago, so they’ll hope Kris Dunn can turn back the clock to his Providence days.

Chicago’s going to be bad. But maybe they’ll get some assets for Lopez and Nikola Mirotic at the trade deadline. Maybe Markkanen and Felicio will excel when they inherit starting roles. Maybe Dunn seizes the day, and LaVine scores more than he gives up. Maybe the cream will rise to the top, and the ping pong balls will bubble in Chicago’s favor. Maybe. What’s certain is that they’ll lose enough games to be in content for a golden ticket.

CLEVELAND, OH – OCTOBER 10: Dwyane Wade and LeBron James

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

2016-17 Record: 51-31, 1st in Central, 2nd in the East

Projected Starters: PG Isaiah Thomas*, SG Dwyane Wade, SF LeBron James, PF Jae Crowder, C Kevin Love. Rotation: Derrick Rose, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, Channing Frye, Kyle Korver. Head Coach: Tyronn Lue 78-45 in 3rd year with Cleveland. Average age of Core: 30.7.

I’m going to write this one differently from the rest. Let’s break it down into the bad and the good.

THE BAD

51 wins isn’t all that impressive for a team has spent three years dominating the conference, and looking at this group they’re going to be hard pressed to improve on it. They just didn’t improve collectively. The Cavs had a glaring defect (rim protecting) which went unaddressed. Bless his heart, but Tristan Thompson doesn’t terrify the masses with Mutumboan swats. They’ve doubled down on their small ball, spread it approach which was good enough for 6 wins less than in 2015-16.
They’re starting Dwyane Wade over J.R. Smith, which is a mistake. The Cavs were at their best last year when they spread the floor and let LeBron James attack or kick to open marksmen. To do that effectively your complimentary players need to actually hit threes which has never been Wade’s forte. He’s always been a below average 3 point shooter, shooting .123 worse than Smith over the last four seasons. Wade’s also seen his scoring overall fall off. His net rating was well behind Smith’s. Smith ranked 41st among Guards with a +3.3, Wade was 120nd at -2.4.
I don’t know how they’re going to guard faster teams. If they run at every chance and then attack the rim on most possessions, Indy and Milwaukee will give the Cavs fits. Washington will slice the Cavalier defense to pieces. Jae Crowder will help, and James is brilliant, but the majority of their roster is composed of subpar defenders. They’ll have to play perfect team defense to make up for their individual defects.

THE GOOD

LeBron James.
Their spread-the-floor-and-let-LeBron-do-stuff offense is still unstoppable when it’s clicking. The most dangerous offense east of the Sierra Nevadas.

DETROIT, MI – OCTOBER 9: Stanley Johnson, Henry Ellenson and Luke Kennard.

DETROIT PISTONS

2016-17 Record: 37-45, 5th in Central, 10th in the East

Projected Starters: PG Reggie Jackson, SG Avery Bradley, SF Tobias Harris, PF Jon Leuer, C Andre Drummond. Rotation: Stanley Johnson, Ish Smith, Luke Kennard, Henry Ellenson, Eric Moreland, Langston Galloway. Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy 484-341, 3rd year in Detroit. Avg core age: 24.6.

The Pistons should make the playoffs this year. They should. They really should. Avery Bradley brings balance to a starting lineup that feature two key players who were notoriously inconsistent last year: Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Detroit was the worst shooting team in the NBA a year ago, so they selected Luke Kennard in the Draft, added free agent Langston Galloway, and Henry Ellenson finally has a year under his belt. Plus three teams that finished above Detroit underwent gigantic roster overhauls this offseason. So they should move up just by default.

But…

With less than a week before the season, Stan Van Gundy still isn’t certain what his starting lineup will be. Their best backcourt players (Bradley and Jackson) have barely played together because of injures. They’re hopeful about their bench, but no one else is. Oh, and Drummond definitely didn’t look like a franchise cornerstone they once thought him to be.

Drummond’s case is interesting. 2016 looked like a breakthrough season, he posted a 16/15 (points/rebounds) season and the Pistons made the playoffs. Last year his stats slipped to 14/14 and Detroit slipped out of the postseason. That might seem insignificant, however, He’d seen his stats improve in each of his first four season, and the fear is that he’s already peaked. Drummond also posted a disastrous -6.3 net rating last year, puncturing the theory that he was a good defender.

That said maybe a rebound isn’t that far away. Drummond did lead the league in defensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage. He also shot a career best on field goals 0-10 feet away from the rim. His average shooting distance was 4.4 feet, which was over a foot further than his career average. Theoretically, if they could get him opportunities deeper in the post his scoring numbers will increase too. Plus the man is only 24, his prime should still be 3 years off. Drummond could still get better.

If he does improve so will the Pistons and they could finish as high as fifth in the East. If he doesn’t improve, or just plays like he did last year, Detroit could also miss the playoffs for the eighth this decade.

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – OCTOBER 10: Lance Stephenson, TJ Leaf, Myles Turner, some other guy and Bojan Bogdanovic

INDIANA PACERS

2016-17 Record: 42-40, 3rd in Central, 7th in the East

Projected Starters: PG Darren Collison, SG Victor Oladipo, SF Bojan Bogdanovic, PF Thaddeus Young, C Myles Turner. Rotation: Lance Stephenson, Domantas Sabonis, T.J. Leaf, Cory Joseph, Glenn Robinson III. Head Coach: Nate McMillan 520-492, 2nd year in Indy. Average core age: 25.

You should never read too much into preseason games, but most teams don’t play their top guys as much as Indiana did. And the blue and gold looked good. The starters meshed well, Larry Bird’s dream of a fast paced offense seems to have been realized, and the rumors about you-know-who wanting to go you-know-where are at a two year low.

Something that was really telling from the preseason was the minutes distributed on offense, and who lead the team in scoring.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

2016-17 Record: 42-40, 2nd in Central, 6th in the East

Projected Starters: PG Malcolm Brogdon, SG Khris Middleton, SF Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF Jabari Parker*, C Thon Maker. Rotation: Tony Snell, Greg Monroe, Matthew Dellavedova, D.J Wilson. Head Coach: Jason Kidd 160-168, 4th year in Milwaukee. Average core age: 24.

The heights that these Bucks will reach will be dependent on one man, Giannis “I hope I’m spelling his name right” Antetokounmpo. Last year he led them in everything. There are positives to this namely, your star player is awesome and should be an MVP candidate. But there are negatives too, since you’re entirely dependent on one player to deliver for you every night. We’ve seen that strategy work, LeBron James took the Cavs to the Finals and Russell Westbrook won the MVP; but neither could overcome more balanced opponents in the playoffs.

For the Bucks to really make the leap into a contender, they’ll need a Robin to rise and share the load that Antetokounmpo carries alone.

The most obvious candidate is Jabari Parker, who looks like he was constructed to be a model power forward in 2017. Parker’s averaged 16/6 over his first three seasons, peaking at 20.1 last season. The problem with Parker is that he’s hurt all the time. He’s already missed 94 games due to injuries over his career, and he’s expected to be out several months while recovering from last season’s ACL injury. So while he might be the sharpest hatchet in the shed, he’s also the hatchet who’s handle keeps slipping off, getting stuck in that one corner that’s really hard to reach.

Besides Parker, Milwaukee doesn’t have many other star options. What they do have is a roster loaded with tweeners that compliment Antetokounmpo well. In the playoffs they found out that Thon Maker is a good interior defender that will allow Antetokounmpo to fly around. In Malcolm Brogdon they have a steady presence at the point. Neither are all-stars but both will play well on this team.

Even without Parker, this is a dangerous Bucks team. If circumstances fall in their favor (i.e. the Cleveland soap opera becomes too dysfunctional), don’t be surprised if Milwaukee and not Cleveland win the Central. That doesn’t, however, mean a deep playoff run is in the cards for the Bucks. While their embrace of the positionless concept will look brilliant some nights, it will also look like a disaster on others – like when they can’t stay in front of Kyrie Irving or John Wall, or when a bigger team is out-rebounding them by a billion. Either way, this team will only go as far as Giannis “I before E except after C” Antetokounmpo will take them.

The WRAP-UP

Cleveland is still the top dog, but they’re far from flawless. They won the Central with 51 wins last year a total surpassed by four teams (Golden State, San Antonio, Houston, Boston) and matched by three others (Toronto, Utah, Clippers). They can’t afford to slip in 2017-18 or second place Milwaukee will start holding a fire to their heels. Detroit should finish third, but the wild card is Indiana. If the Pacers play as Kevin Pritchard imagines, than Indy will displace, at least, the Pistons on their way back to the playoffs.

Next: GRIII's injury will hurt the Pacers

Then there’s Chicago who…well…they’ve got a great personality.

Jonathan Matthes