As much as the Pacers should be scouting every prospect available to take with the 18th pick, they should also be exploring a trade sending that pick out for an established player.
Last summer, after all the scouting was done, after all the experts had made their predictions, and after every blogger wrote their opinion piece, the 2016 NBA draft began. Just like any other draft, many aspects were easy to predict. Ben Simmons went number one, the Thunder swindled another team and the Kings did something stupid. It was all happening like clockwork. Once the lottery is over, anything can happen on draft night, and that’s part of what draws so many fans to the event.
The Pacers were one of those teams that picked after the lottery. They had drawn intrigue from many other teams, they could have done anything last year. They could have traded up, they could have traded down or they could have followed the Draft Express mock draft and picked Dejounte Murray (sigh). But the Pacers did a move that was widely considered the best Pacers move of the offseason during the 2016 draft: they traded out.
The Pacers sent the 20th pick and a second rounder (protected 45-60 from 2018-2020) to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for power forward Thaddeus Young. Young was an immediate starter for the Pacers and an unquestioned leader in the rotation. Young played 30 minutes a game, and since the Pacers were hard pressed to find help for Paul George, this trade made perfect sense for them at the time.
This year, the Pacers are in an interesting spot. Balancing their hopes to keep Paul George with their hopes to rebuild if he leaves put the Pacers in a tough position going into the draft. The Pacers hold pick No. 18, which presents the possibility of drafting a good young player because of the depth of the draft. However, building a good team that Paul George would want to stay on is rumored to be the first priority for the front office. That opens up worlds of possibilities for trading the 18th pick in this years draft.
Many trade opportunities will probably exist, and the Pacers would (probably) only make a trade if it expedites either the “keep Paul George” or the “start a rebuild” timelines. Let’s explore some options the Pacers could have if they do decide to trade the 18th pick and talk about why they would make the trade (aka which timeline the trade would fall on).
An option the Pacers could explore is trading the pick to the Pistons for Marcus Morris. Morris has become the perfect depiction of the modern stretch four, he’s a 35 percent 3-point shooter and he is about average on defense. He is only making $10 million combined over the next two seasons, so he is on an extremely team-friendly contract. The Wizards made an almost identical trade for his twin brother, and it has worked out well for him, and it is reasonable to think the Pacers can expect similar results.
The Pistons appear to be shopping everyone, so Morris could definitely be available. This trade would fall on the “keep PG timeline.” Morris would play very nicely off the bench next to shot creators like Monta Ellis and GRIII and can easily slide into the starting lineup in place of Thad or Myles. His shooting and overall skillset would probably be a better fit next to PG than Thad Young’s would be, so it is even possible if this trade goes down that Thad would move to the bench.
Shooting bigs are a hot commodity in today’s NBA, so the Pacers would love to get one on a cheap contract if they could. It has also been long rumored that Paul George and one of Morris’s Pistons teammates, Reggie Jackson, are very good friends. The Pacers could look to trade the pick for Jackson if they feel he could help convince PG to stay. Both of these trades would be decent value for the pick and could help the Pacers improve their roster for next season.
This option is one that is mutually beneficial for the teams involved. The Trail Blazers head into this draft with three first round picks and likely only two available roster spots. They also are in need of cheap labor as they approach the luxury tax, so trading their picks for players who aren’t cheap isn’t an option. Therefore, trading up in the draft is a nice option for them.
For the Pacers, trading back offers a small amount of risk mitigation. The difference between the 18th and 20th pick in the draft isn’t crazy, and having two first-round picks instead of one offers more options going forward, which is very useful for a team potentially at a crossroads.
This option could fit on both the “keep PG” and “rebuild” timeline. Getting two good young players could convince PG to stay and would make the team have more youth talent. If the Blazers are shopping picks, the Pacers should look into a trade of this nature.
This trade is an interesting one. Monta Ellis is not worth his contract, plain and simple. The Pacers would have to trade an asset, presumably a draft pick, to have another team take on Monta Ellis, even if it’s only for one more season. However, a first-round pick is too much to give up just to trade a decent player like Ellis. That is where the Hawks come in.
Bazemore is worth less than the first-round pick on its own, but include bad salary with it and suddenly it’s a fair trade. The Hawks, who could be in the midst of a rebuild if Paul Millsap departs, will be searching for assets. If they can receive a first-round pick for Bazemore, they would happily do it, even if it means they have to pay Monta Ellis.
For the Pacers, Bazemore is a perfect 3-and-D guy to put next to PG. He can guard two through four and he can shoot the 3 reasonably well, he’s a career 35 percent shooter. He is also only 27, and while he is getting paid a lot, he is a good player in a position of need for the Pacers. He could slide right into the starting lineup on the wing next to PG. This trade would fall on the “convince PG to stay” timeline, and if it works out for the Pacers they could have an exceptional 3-point shooting starting lineup.
Readers beware, just skip this one if you aren’t from Indianapolis. Like Monta Ellis, Al Jefferson is an awful contract. Last season he played pretty ineffectively when he was on the court, and the Pacers paid him at an amount way higher than his production. Next season, one could expect that situation to be similar, so the Pacers may need to trade an asset, like with Ellis, to get off Jefferson’s salary.
The Knicks need anything they can get to rebuild. Their starting center is also terrible and suspended to start the season next year. Al Jefferson AND the 18th pick could be useful for them, so this trade would be nice for them.
For the Pacers, this trade offers a handful of benefits. One, it gets them off of Al Jefferson’s salary. Two, it lands them Ron Baker, who surprised everyone with his play in New York last season and would be a great young contributor off the bench for the Pacers. Seconds, it gets them Courtney Lee, one of the best defending two guards in the league. Third, Lee is from Indianapolis and would bring local fans to games to watch him play. This trade gets the Pacers young talent and fans at their games, which is great. However it probably isn’t enough of a return for the 18th pick, so don’t expect the Pacers to do this.
(Writers note: I LOVE when Indy high schoolers play for the Pacers, so please let me dream, as I recently had my heart broken by a George Hill trade)
Here is a trade that is mutually beneficial and fits both timelines. The Mavericks are probably on their last year of Dirk. Then, it becomes rebuild time. They will be looking to add any first-round picks. The Pacers get a great young rim runner on a cheap deal in Powell, who can play with Turner/PG and with bench units, and additionally get Liggins who showed flashes of great wing play in Cleveland and is on a team friendly contract.
A lot of people have been suggesting/predicting that the Pacers will pick John Collins with this pick. Dwight Powell is essentially John Collins’ ceiling at this point, in my opinion. The Pacers could get that guy now.
This would be an admittedly underwhelming return for the Pacers in terms of big names or franchise changing players, but this move would help the Pacers have some solid talent for years to come, regardless of if they are rebuilding or contending with Paul George.
The Timberwolves are a team ready to start contending next season, and Tyus Jones is not a part of their plans to be competitive. He has been solid in limited minutes in Minnesota, but due to a combination of Ricky Rubio’s exceptional defense and passing, as well as Kris Dunn’s potential (which may actually not exist), he has fallen out of the rotation. Omri Casspi is a solid 3-and-D guy who’s coming off an injury, and while the Timberwolves could use the shooting, they could also use cheap players as their team is about to get very expensive.
Hence why they would want the 18th pick. They could use it to draft a cost controlled third point guard for their roster. The Pacers would get a good depth and youth and a draft pick in exchange for their pick.
Here, the Pacers are gambling on Jones. He has been solid in Minnesota so far (his PER last season was higher than CJ Miles, a full two points higher than Joe Young, and four points higher than Aaron Brooks), and he has potential to be even better if he got more minutes. Throw in a great 3-and-D guy in Casspi who can play with starters and bench units, and offers spacing? That’s a pretty good haul for the Pacers, and the second-round pick would make this trade fair for both sides.
This trade is an investment in the poor future of the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Hawks received this first-round pick in an Adreian Payne trade in 2015, and the Timberwolves lottery protected it. The Pacers could want that pick if they believe that Minnesota will barely be a playoff team next year (which looks pretty likely) and that pick would be around 15-20. Throw in a 2019 Cavs first (top 10 protected but if they are still good then it’s basically a late first) and the best pick in the second round and now you are getting somewhere.
For the Hawks, a team that recently admitted they will not be giving the max to Paul Millsap (which means he is probably gone), they will be rebuilding and will want assets now. If they can get a solid first-round pick AND a second-round pick for two protected firsts (that both could be bad) and a second, they would surely consider it. They would also want the cheap, but still potentially contributing, rookie now as opposed to later because they are still an expensive roster with Dwight Howard, Dennis Schroder and the aforementioned Bazemore.
The Pacers would be headed down a post-Paul George timeline with this trade. The first pick in the second round would still land the Pacers a good player for a rebuild, and having two first round picks in two consecutive drafts is a great way to start a rebuild. Sure, punting on this draft hurts, but it also makes the team worse and increase their draft position for next year (when they would now have two firsts). This could be a trade that makes sense for both teams.
This is the Grandaddy. No fancy graphic because it’s a three-team deal. Pacers receive: Pick No. 15, Pick No. 20, Pick No. 26, Noah Vonleh, and Evan Turner. Blazers receive: Paul George, Monta Ellis, Pick No. 57. Nets receive: Pick No. 18, Allen Crabbe.
I hope you’ll listen to some reasoning on this one. I know that it sucks to give up Paul George, but there is a lot to this trade to dissect, but if we go one team at a time, it will seem like a win-win-win.
Let’s start with the team that easily accepts right from the start, the Brooklyn Nets. All the Nets have to give up for this trade is their late second round pick, No. 57, in exchange for pick No. 18 and Allen Crabbe. Crabbe is young and can shoot, and everyone in the world knows that the Nets need better draft picks, so they would gladly take the 18th pick. The reason this trade is such a no brainer for the Nets is that they have the cap space to simply take in Allen Crabbe, meaning they don’t have to send any salary back to the Blazers/Pacers to make this trade work. Due to this, they get an exceptional return for their 57th pick, because they are taking bad salary away from the Blazers.
For the Blazers – before we talk about how elated they are to get Paul George, let’s talk about some other roster problems they have. As described in the other Portland trade in this article, they have more picks than roster spots going into next season. They also have some awful contracts on their team between Crabbe, Meyers Leonard and Evan Turner. They would love to get off as many of those contracts as they could. So in this trade, At the expense of all three of their first rounders and young role player Noah Vonleh, they get two of those bad contracts off of their team.
Oh, and they get Paul George. Monta Ellis needs to be included to make the salaries legal in this trade, but what is one year of Monta Ellis to the Blazers if they get off of Turner AND Crabbe AND get Paul George? Not a lot, that’s what.
Finally, for the Pacers, this trade pretty obviously represents the end of the Paul George era, because he would be off the team. But it actually poses a pretty good return for him. His value goes down every single day he is still on the team, as there are less days remaining he doesn’t have control over his next team. Getting three first round picks and Noah Vonleh (an IU alum) would give the Pacers tons of young players to grow with Myles Turner and newly acquired Noah Vonleh, and Evan Turner would be the new primary ball handler on the team. His salary is pretty large, but without PG and Ellis, the Pacers would need that salary to get to the salary floor. This trade could be a perfect return for the Pacers.
(There is one problem with this, and that is that Crabbe can’t be traded to the Nets until July 9 because he signed with them last year as a restricted free agent. That means that this trade would have to be agreed upon before the draft, so the teams could still get who they want with the picks, then on July 9 the trade would become official).
A more simple trade to wind down after the last one. Like last year, the Pacers will be looking for contributors to make sure they have a contender when the playoffs roll around. The Pacers worst position is pretty obviously shooting guard, and the Nuggets have an abundance of them, so this trade could be a match made in heaven.
For the Nuggets, this trade is a no brainer. Barton has reportedly spurned the Nuggets attempts to extend his contract, meaning he is likely to leave in free agency in the summer of 2018. The Nuggets will be looking to trade Barton for any asset they can get, and the 18th pick would be a great return.
For the Pacers, Barton would be an immediate starter. He shot 37 percent from 3-point range last year, so with Paul George (and possibly Jeff Teague) on the court driving to the basket, he could have many open attempts from deep. His athleticism makes him useful in many offensive roles, and he fits the biggest position of need for Indiana. At worst, he could be a useful sixth man behind Monta or GRIII, and he would help the Pacers offense in a pretty meaningful way.
This trade is similar to the draft pick with Portland from earlier. The Magic have no need for three more young players. They need more contributors as they move into contributing more in the Eastern conference. The Pacers are about to be moving into a rebuild, so getting three solid picks could be more useful than just one decent one.
The Magic need better draft picks. They have been bad every season since they traded Dwight Howard, and they need something to excite fans. Aaron Gordon and two top-20 picks would be enough to do that and would make the team far better. The Magic have four roster spots and four draft picks, so it might make sense to trade up so they can use some of their roster spots more constructively.
For the Pacers, this would signify the team is moving in a direction away from Paul George. They would be drafting three young players in hopes that one or more of them turns out. They could have up to nine years of cost control on three contributors if they hit on all the picks, and that is exactly what the Pacers would need if they move on from Paul George: a plethora of young contributors.
The final trade is the leader in the clubhouse for what I would want the Pacers to do. TJ Warren is young and still on his rookie contract and has been a great scorer in his time with the Suns. He can get by guys in front of him, and he would fit perfectly next to a stretch five like Myles Turner.
The Suns look likely to pick a wing (Josh Jackson or Jayson Tatum) with the fourth pick in the draft. That would make Warren the odd man out in Phoenix, especially with his contract ending after next season. Glenn Robinson III could help them off the bench in ways that Warren couldn’t, and the 18th pick could give them someone more along their timeline.
For the Pacers, this trade nets them a great young scorer who can handle the ball and run an offense. He is better than anyone the Pacers could get with the 18th pick, and the 32nd pick still offers pretty high value in the second round. In a post-PG world, Warren could start and the 32nd pick could grow into a very useful player for the Pacers. This trade would be very useful for a Pacers rebuild.
Next: Paul George will finish his contract with the Pacers
In all likelihood, the Pacers will hold on to their pick and bring in a new, young prospect on June 22. However, it never hurts to daydream for a few thousand words.