The NBA announced the three All-NBA teams on Thursday afternoon, and Paul George was not included in any of them. No longer able to receive a mega-extension this summer, his future could follow many different paths.
Paul George faces a very unpredictable future. He is no longer eligible for the Designated Veteran Player Extension this summer, which means that the Pacers have lost a crucial piece of leverage in retaining their superstar. Rumors of George fleeing to Los Angeles circulate the internet on a daily basis, and he’s done little to dispel them.
George has said multiple times that he always imagined playing for the Lakers at some point, but that point isn’t necessarily the 2017-18 season. Until the summer of 2018, George’s future isn’t entirely up to him, and Pacers GM Kevin Pritchard could decide to move him to a completely different team for this season.
Even though he wasn’t named to an All-NBA team, George is still arguably a top 15 player in the NBA. The stipulation that a center must be named to each All-NBA team is arguably what kept him and Jazz forward Gordon Hayward off the lists.
When it comes down to it, there are five primary paths forward for George. The first is the one we can’t stop hearing about.
1. Trade to the Lakers
We’ll start with the most buzz worthy of all options, a blockbuster trade that sends Paul George to his hometown Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers were recently awarded their third consecutive No. 2 pick in the draft, and it’s unclear if that makes a trade more or less likely. It’s almost guaranteed that Lonzo Ball will be the pick, and I know a certain misogynist that wouldn’t be thrilled with his son playing in Naptown.
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Los Angeles has also made it clear in the past that Brandon Ingram is untouchable in trade talks. Without Ingram or Ball, it might be tougher for Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka to make a deal. If Ball is on the table, I think a package of Ball, Julius Randle, the No. 28 pick from Houston and salary filler would be difficult for Kevin Pritchard to turn down. It’s hard to see why the Lakers would give up so much for a player they think they can sign in free agency.
There’s definitely an upside for trading for George now instead of waiting a year to sign him. It’s entirely possible that another team could trade for George and sell him on their organization and their culture, convincing him to sign there long term and kick the Lakers dream aside for five years or so.
2. Trade to the Celtics
Boston is the second most talked about Paul George destination, with a steep drop off after that. The Celtics have been hoarding assets for years now, and I can’t prove it, but I’m pretty sure Danny Ainge sleeps on a pile of them every night.
King James Gospel
Those assets continued to magnify Tuesday night, when Boston received the first overall pick in this year’s draft via Brooklyn. They could use that pick on Markelle Fultz and try to wait out LeBron James, but we’ve seen teams struggle down the road after adopting the “best player available” strategy (hello, Jahlil Okafor).
If Boston manages to make these Eastern Conference Finals a real series, then they could also trade that No. 1 pick for a star in his prime. That’s where Paul George comes in. Sure, it’s a risk to give up an asset like Fultz for a guy who could bolt in the summer of 2018. But that rationale implies that it’s not also a risk to bet on Fultz and Jaylen Brown being elite NBA players in five or six years. We do not know what is going to happen. Full stop.
There is no decision in the NBA that isn’t risky, and for a team that talks so much about their culture and their genius coach and all that, wouldn’t they be confident that they could talk George into staying?
3. Trade to somewhere else
There are 27 other teams that we haven’t talked about yet, although you wouldn’t know it from talking to Lakers or Celtics fans. Any GM with half a brain will be calling Kevin Pritchard to inquire about George at some point this summer. Maybe someone comes up with a package he likes.
The Denver Nuggets have more young assets than they know what to do with, and they clearly want another star to put next to Nikola Jokic. Pritchard would probably want Jamal Murray to be included in any deal, and that might be a deal breaker for Nuggets GM Tim Connelly. However, maybe the market for George is surprisingly tepid and Pritchard wants to move George before the season. It’s unlikely, but maybe the No. 13 pick, Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay would be enough to make Indiana pull the trigger. There might be riots at Bankers Life if that happens.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum of the Portland Trail Blazers have also been doggedly chasing after Paul George as well. It’s surely encouraging for Blazers fans to see their stars so active in trying to improve the team. The problem is, the Blazers are very low on cap space and young assets. Ironically, the only way the general manager Neil Olshey could land Paul George in a trade is if one of Lillard or McCollum is involved, and that might be too crazy.
The San Antonio Spurs could probably somehow get him for $50 and then also get the No. 18 pick from the Pacers. I don’t have specifics, but I’ve learned to not doubt the Spurs when it comes to things like this.
4. Extension with the Pacers
Before I start in on this one, let me be clear: Paul George has seriously no incentive to choose this path. It makes no sense from a financial standpoint, from an autonomy standpoint or really from any standpoint. The only upside is a lot of guaranteed money this summer instead of next summer, but there’s no evidence to suggest that George is unusually worried about that.
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This option will almost certainly not happen. However, let’s go over the details just for the sake of being exhaustive. The Pacers would be able to extend George an extra four years this summer, meaning that he would be under contract until the summer of 2022 (that’s not a real year).
If the extension is signed after July 1, then it will be under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). That means that George’s first year salary would be maxed out at 120 percent of the previous year’s salary. George will make $19.5 million next year, so his max salary in his first new contract year would be $23.4 million. Again, he’s not going to do this.
If George is traded this summer, his new team could also extend him with these same stipulations, but don’t expect that to happen either. Paul George is due for a big raise next summer, when he’ll be able to get a max of up to 30 percent of the salary cap. Something crazy would have to go down for him to not cash in on it.
5. Nothing
As it goes with a lot of these rumors, Paul George’s situation could remain completely unchanged this summer. The Pacers’ front office could decide that no trade proposal is acceptable and try to push the negotiations to the trade deadline in February. Offers will arguably be worse at that point, but plenty of front offices still elect this option every year.
Maybe Kevin Pritchard even decides that he’ll try to sign George to a new contract in the summer of 2018. Indiana will have George’s bird rights after all, so they’ll be able to offer him an extra year and higher annual raises than any other team. Maybe Pritchard will have reason to believe that that’s enough to keep George around.
The Pacers have limited ways to improve their roster this summer, thanks to the contracts of Monta Ellis and Al Jefferson, so it will be difficult to sell this team as a contender to a guy who’s hitting unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career. That said, it’s entirely possible that Pritchard feels the team is better off trying to re-sign George than taking a less than favorable trade package because they’re afraid of losing him for nothing.
Next: C.J. Miles will opt out this summer
We have no way of knowing where Paul George will be next year, but I can guarantee that the rumors will be flying every which way until we do.