The Indiana Pacers are set to face the Cleveland Cavaliers this afternoon, so we gather a super-mega playoff edition of the 8 Points, 9 Seconds Roundtable to look at the series.
Let’s not kid ourselves, the odds are stacked against the Indiana Pacers as they take on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Bovada gives Indiana 13/2 odds (roughly a 7.50% shot to beat LeBron James and his crew.
However, that doesn’t mean Paul George and the Pacers don’t have a chance.
If they can keep playing like they did in their last few games, then this series should go 6 or 7 games, and in a Game 7, anything can happen.
With all that in mind, we gathered for a super-mega playoff edition of the 8 Points, 9 Seconds Roundtable.
The Indiana Pacers are winners of their last five contests. How much does that momentum matter going up against the Cleveland Cavaliers?
Josh Padmore: It definitely will play a factor. You always want to go into the playoffs on a high note playing your best basketball. The Pacers have looked comfortable, and they’ve played some tough opponents over that five game stretch. Three of which are playoff teams. The Pacers are definitely the underdog, but it will make things a lot easier knowing everyone understands their role and knowing the team is in rhythm right now. They’re going to need that momentum and confidence and then some heading into this series against Cleveland.
Jon Washburn: It matters for Paul George moving forward, specifically in regards to how he views his potential future in Indiana. The 2016-17 season was a grind, one that few people would describe as “fun” in any way. That changed when the Pacers signed Lance Stephenson and started playing better. If Indy can steal a game or two from the Cavs and make the series interesting, then
PG could conceivably talk himself into the idea that the Pacers might be building something. This would obviously be great news for Indiana.
However, I don’t think the last five games will really have much of an impact on the Pacers prospects of actually beating Cleveland.
Luke Parrish: The last 5 games could provide a huge jolt of confidence for Indiana. I think the addition of Lance has brought life to this team that was not seen at all earlier in the season, and Paul George has seemed to feed nicely off of it as well. Paul and Lance bring out the best in each other, which is great news for the Pacers.
Will Furr: That momentum means the world. This Pacers team has spent a good portion of the year bouncing between looking disinterested and dispirited. In the six games AL (After Lance), the Pacers are 5-1. Their one loss was a double overtime defeat in Cleveland against a Cavs team playing all 3 stars. Paul George looks like he’s capable of scoring efficiently on anyone alive.
That momentum means the world. This Pacers team has spent a good portion of the year bouncing between looking disinterested and dispirited. In the six games AL (After Lance), the Pacers are 5-1. Their one loss was a double overtime defeat in Cleveland against a Cavs team playing all 3 stars. Paul George looks like he’s capable of scoring efficiently on anyone alive. — Will Furr
Myles Turner and Jeff Teague are having fun, and Thad Young finally looks healthy. For 90% of the season, the Pacers looked like a team sputtering their way into a first round sweep. The last 6 games, they look like a team capable of going toe to toe with anyone in the East. With only 2 days between clinching a playoff birth and game 1 in Cleveland, I have to think these guys will still be feeling it.
Mason Hankins: It means everything. A team with confidence is always a scary thing, and the Pacers haven’t had that all year until this point. This is due in large part to PG’s offensive and rebounding explosion, and obviously the attitude and spark of Lance Stepenson.
Kevin Kaspar: Momentum is everything in the playoffs. Indiana is arguably the hottest team heading into the post season and I don’t expect them to lift their foot off of the gas pedal.
The Pacers are also beneficiaries of having the greatest hype man in NBA history, Lance Stephenson, coming off their bench. Expect ‘Born Ready’ to pump up Paul George all series long in an effort to keep the momentum going.
Ryan Barth: For a team that has been as up and down as the Pacers (see the consecutive Win/Loss streak)…it matters. Everyone on this team knows they’re a massive underdog and the only way to combat that is with some Blue Collar, Momentum Swagger.
Jay Neal: It matters because it gives the Pacers a chance to make this series competitive. Paul George has been on fire for a month and half and he nearly singlehandedly put the Pacers in this position. I expect him to keep this level of play even against the challenge of LeBron James. I also expect the #LanceEffect to have an impact on the series.
Dave Searle: It means almost nothing. The “Braveheart” speech that the coach or someone makes will stick to the ribs a little bit more given the momentum, but 5 minutes into Game 1 it will all wash away.
Ryan Eggers: Not a bunch, considering LeBron James’ teams have a weird skill of automatically turning on the playoff switch. Paul George also has this gear, and it’s a good sign that he’s already on that level, but it probably won’t make a difference against this team.
Dylan Hughes: It means something. The Cavs can’t be an uber-confident team heading into the playoffs, even though they are the defending champs and have the best player in the world. The Pacers are hot and feeling themselves. For at least Game 1, I would think that gives the Pacers some sort of an advantage.
The Cleveland Cavaliers struggled in March and are 2-4 since they beat the Pacers in double overtime recently. Will they be able to flip the switch against Indiana?
Padmore: I think the Cavaliers will flip the switch considering it’s playoff time. I still have them winning the East, but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about their recent struggles. They were below .500 after the All-Star break, and their defense was non-existent.
At the end of the day, LeBron James is LeBron James. Kyrie Irving is Kyrie Irving. The Pacers will have to work their tails off to win this series. With that being said, anything is possible in the NBA playoffs. Steal a game on the road, try to protect home court and go from there.
Washburn: Probably. Larry Bird only lost three playoff series against lower ranked teams (one when he was a rookie, and the other two were to eventual Conference Champions). Magic Johnson only lost twice to lower ranked teams (once to the Twin Towers in Houston, and once to a red-hot Kevin Johnson). Michael Jordan never lost to a lower ranked team in the playoffs.
The all-time greats know how to turn it on when they need to, and seldom lose to inferior teams. This year’s version of the LeBron’s is not as invincible as they seemed in December, the king is the king until he’s dead, and LeBron ain’t dead yet. — Jon Washburn
The all-time greats know how to turn it on when they need to, and seldom lose to inferior teams. This year’s version of the LeBron’s is not as invincible as they seemed in December, the king is the king until he’s dead, and LeBron ain’t dead yet.
Parrish: You can never question the talent the Cavs have, and LeBron in the playoffs is a nightmare for opponents. The Cavs will likely step it up in the playoffs and get back to where we know they can be.
Furr: Yes. In my mind, the answer to this question will always be yes until we see a playoffs where LeBron can’t.
Hankins: Playoff LeBron will show up, but his team will continue to flounder and the King will be upset and probably sound off again, as the series is closer than anticipated.
Kaspar: Yes, simply because LeBron James is an alien who was put on this earth to destroy dreams and win championships. James has not lost an opening round playoff game since 2013 and I am certain that every single player in the Cavs’ locker room is acutely aware of this.
Barth: Absolutely – they’ll flip the switch in the first 2 minutes of Game 1. The crowd, the energy in the building and their history of winning big playoff games will all push them to new heights.
Neal: Yes, to an extent. Their defense has been really bad since the All-Star break, 29th in defensive efficiency. That’s not a small sample size. I expect their defense to be a bit better than that, but the Pacers have enough weapons (if the right lineups are played together) to give the Cavs’ defense problems.
Searle: Sort-of. Their defense is a real issue, and they don’t have the personnel to truly recover. But, the Cavs are locks honestly. Expect the offense to be awe inspiring in stretches.
Eggers: No question. This March/April happens every year, and LeBron flips the switch in the playoffs every year. I won’t believe the contrary until I see it.
Hughes: The idiot in me (which has a very strong presence) has the Pacers upsetting these reeling Cavaliers, but that obviously isn’t happening. LeBron James in the playoffs is a different animal, and he’s never lost a Round 1 series. A Paul George-led crew that is hot may be one of his tougher first round foes, but Cleveland shouldn’t have too many issues getting past the Pacers.
LeBron James is the best player, Paul George is the second, who are the next three?
Padmore: Kyrie Irving is the third best player in this series, I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. He is a juggernaut on the offensive end. I would have Kevin Love as the fourth best player. He gives you a double-double every night while shooting a nice percentage from deep. Jeff Teague as the 5th best player in this series.
Teague over Myles Turner because he’s more experienced, and has made the playoffs in every single year. He’s also coming off a really good first season with the Indiana Pacers. Teague played in every single game this season, had a career year in assists, and still gave you the 15+ points per game.
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Washburn: If everyone is healthy, then Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Jeff Teague are the next three best players (in that order).
However, the Pacers have two guys in Lance Stephenson and C.J. Miles that could be the third and fourth best players in a given game (J.R. Smith and Kyle Korea fit the same bill for the Cavs). If the Pacers want to have any semblance of a chance in this series, they will need big time performances from their two “X-Factors.”
Parrish: Kyrie Irving: Kyrie’s ball-handling and overall offensive ability makes him a huge threat. He is one of the best guards in the NBA right now.
Myles Turner: Myles is a solid defender in the post and he can hit his jump shots, which is a mismatch for opponents.
J.R. Smith: This one may be a surprise pick, but Smith can catch fire from deep.
Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Jeff Teague. This is where it gets dicey for the Pacers and their chances to make this a long series. Cleveland has three of the best four players in the series. Indiana needs a totally engaged Jeff Teague to play Kyrie Irving to a standstill and at least one other player to elevate his game to turn a potential sweep into a 6-game series. — Jay Neal
Furr: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Jeff Teague
Hankins: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Myles Turner
Kaspar: 3. Born Ready
4. ReBorn Ready
5. Lance Stephenson
Barth: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Myles Turner. If Myles can rebound like he has been the last few games and we can miraculously put a muzzle on Kyrie, maybe we’ll have enough juice to win a few games and keep the locals happy.
Neal: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Jeff Teague. This is where it gets dicey for the Pacers and their chances to make this a long series. Cleveland has three of the best four players in the series. Indiana needs a totally engaged Jeff Teague to play Kyrie Irving to a standstill and at least one other player to elevate his game to turn a potential sweep into a 6-game series.
Searle: Irving, Love, and… Teague.
Eggers: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Myles Turner. First two are pretty obvious, but I think we’re gonna see a version of Myles that hasn’t been seen yet in this series. He’s the player that needs to step up the most (assuming PG stepping up is a given) and he has the demeanor of someone up for the challenge.
Hughes: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Jeff Teague
Paul George is averaging 28.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting 50.5% from the floor since March 1. What should we expect from him in this series?
Padmore: We should expect Paul George to do what he always does come playoffs time: perform better than he did during the regular season. I’m not sure if he will average the near 30 points, but that doesn’t mean it will be a bust series for him. If he can replicate what he did against the Raptors last year, and get some significant help from his teammates, the Pacers will make this series interesting.
As Paul George has said, he likes the big stage. I expect him to not take another matchup with LeBron James for granted. They’ve had some great battles in the past, and this theoretically could be the last one in the playoffs.
Washburn: I’m thinking something like 30 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists seems plausible, with slightly worse shooting percentages and a few more turnovers. I expect Paul George to stake his claim as one of the seven or eight best players in the league during this series, even if — like last season — it ultimately comes in a losing effort.
Parrish: I don’t think it’s a stretch to expect the same from Paul in this series. Playoff Paul is exciting to watch, and he knows he has to step up even more to give this team a real chance. Paul will do whatever he can to make it a tough battle.
Furr: I think Paul George is primed for his best playoffs series ever, even counting last year’s playoffs explosion, even against LeBron freakin’ James. I think he averages 30 points and 8 boards against the fighting LeBrons, though probably a bit less efficient. Call it 30-8-45%
Hankins: We should expect even more. Playoff Paul is a real thing, and he ratchets his play up even more versus LBJ.
We should expect even more. Playoff Paul is a real thing, and he ratchets his play up even more versus LBJ. — Mason Hankins
Kaspar: A complete Paul George take over. PG craves the national spotlight and consistently plays his best basketball when those lights are the brightest. Expect Paul George to go toe-to-toe with LeBron and win by any means necessary
Subplot: George is playing for respect from the rest of the league. He has been on the outside looking in on the “who are the best players in the NBA” conversation for too long. A series win over LeBron and the Cavaliers will put that conversation to rest.
Barth: Expect him to go all out against Lebron and put up similar numbers. The problem is he’ll be winded after trying to guard LBJ all game and likely won’t be able to close strong in the 4th quarter if the game is close.
Neal: I expect more of the same. Of course, he’ll have to guard James on the defensive end, which could lead to foul trouble… but James also has to guard him. The Cavs don’t have another wing to put on George that would bother him. After hitting the Cavs with 43 points in his last game against them, I think PG will be at the top of his game this series.
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Searle: He was the best player in Round 1 last year, and he might do it again. Those numbers might tic up a bit. His push-offs and mid-range jumpers thrive in the postseason. Paul George has barely gotten to the line this season, and whistles are harder in the postseason.
Eggers: Probably just that. I don’t see him surpassing the peak he set in March or the performance he put up against the Raptors last year, but I fully expect him to consistently reach that level throughout the series.
Hughes: More. Remember PG in the playoffs last year? He’s going to do that again.
When he faced James a couple weeks ago, he perhaps played his most complete game ever. In both the closing moments of regulation and the first overtime, he successfully denied LeBron getting a pass close to the rim that probably would have sealed the game for Cleveland. LeBron did have an incredible stat line, but Paul outdueled him on those two huge possessions, allowing the Pacers to take Cleveland to two OTs. It may not seem like much, but that showed me PG is ready for the challenge. He probably won’t beat him, and he probably won’t outplay him, but Paul is going to try to prove he’s the best player in the league in this series.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorite in this series and rightly so. What has to happen for the Indiana Pacers to win this series?
Padmore: The Pacers will need a lot of things to win this series. Paul George will need to play like a superstar. Myles Turner will have to make shots. Jeff Teague will need to make shots. Indiana is going to need contributions from every single player that steps foot on the floor.
They will also need Cleveland to continue to play bad defense. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the league during the second half of the season. Also, the Pacers can’t be average. The word average pretty much sums up the Pacers’ season. They were about league average in offense and defense. They need to be at their very best.
Washburn: A Kardashian needs to show up to at least two Cleveland home games, Kyrie Irving needs to be hobbled (but not a DNP) so that Teague can light him up, Kevin Love needs to go cold from the outside, Paul George needs to go full JOHN RINGO, Lance Stephenson needs to blow in some outside shots, Nate McMillan needs to bench Monta Ellis, and LeBron James needs to be lebron james and not LEBRON JAMESSSSSSS.
Cavs in 6.
Parrish: Paul George has to continue his incredible play, Lance needs to help the bench unit keep the team in the game, and the defense has to step it up. It sounds like a lot, but if Myles can protect the rim and the bench doesn’t get completely blown away when they’re on the court, then I think the starters can make a run. With that, the starting unit needs to play more minutes than in the regular season.
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Furr: I think the Pacers need 3 things to go squarely their way in order to have a chance in the series.
1) Jeff Teague has to be 75% of Kyrie Irving. Kyrie can score on anyone alive, from probably 28 feet in. Kyrie isn’t the worst defender alive by any means, but he’s not good, and Jeff Teague is good. Teague needs to put up points and at least make Kyrie work for his.
2) The Pacers bench needs to be the better bench unit. Cleveland’s bench is comprised of shooters, shooters, shooters, and a 7’3 center signed less than a week ago. The Pacers have to run guys like Kyle Korver and Channing Frye off the 3 point line and making them try to score on the move, and punish Cleveland’s near total lack of bench defense on the other end.
3) The bigs need to do work on the glass. Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love average 20 rebounds between the 2 of them, and the Cavs starters grab almost 9 offensive boards per game. Against a team where you defense will often need to be nearly perfect to get stops, offensive rebounds will be backbreaking. Myles Turner, Thad Young, and Kevin Seraphin (and let’s be real, we’re almost definitely going to see Al Jeff and Lavoy Allen at some point) need to box out and hit the glass, every time. ”
Hankins: We have to sag off Lebron and let him shoot from 3, and protect the rim and stay vertical when he gets in the lane. Essentially, keep the ball out of LBJ’s hands, and let Kyrie try to beat us. Don’t let the magnitude of the series get to us, and lean on the playoff experience of Paul and Lance to guide us.
Kaspar: In order for the Pacers to win they need a pinch of luck, a dash of effort, and a whole lot of Paul George heroics. The team also needs Lance Stephenson to become “”Born Ready”” and lead the way for the second unit while irritating LeBron to no end.
Rattle the king, shake the kingdom. Pacers in 7.
Rattle the king, shake the kingdom. Pacers in 7. — Kevin Kaspar
Barth: The Pacers have to steal road games and for a team that is so abysmal on the road, it’s a monumental task. The Pacers went 7 with the Raptors last year because they stole Game 1 and it’s imperative they do the same in this series. Highly unlikely scenario, but they almost have to be able to close out the series at home in Game 6. Here’s hoping we can catch lightening in a bottle.
Neal: The Pacers will need to play the right lineups (aka limited time for any “two-bigs” lineups), make Irving and Love defend (particularly in pick & roll), and the bench has to produce with Lance Stephenson as primary ball handler. That gives them a shot stay competitive and actually win this series.
Searle: Jeff Teague has to be sensational. The Cavs interior D is a joke, and he must burn them. If Thad can shoot & if Monta Ellis has a pulse, the odds slant closer to the Pacers. And… there’s always Lance. Who the hell knows what he brings.
Eggers: Realistically, a LeBron or Kyrie AND Love injury. Not to be pessimistic, but there just isn’t a way the Pacers come out on top. Pre-playoffs hope is lovely, and it’ll be a fun series to watch, but there is no reason to expect a Pacers win against the defending champs.
Hughes: Well, for one, the defense has to improve. Cleveland has that same issue, but they also have LeBron James. And they don’t have Monta Ellis starting at shooting guard. Over this five game win streak, they gave up just 90, 89 and 86 points to Toronto, Milwaukee and Atlanta–their three toughest opponents. But, then, they gave up 112 and 111 to Orlando and Philadelphia. Maybe they just didn’t care to defend those two bottom dwellers, but either way, they can’t try to outscore Cleveland.
Next: Paul George vs LeBron James: Part IV
Also, we’ve seen in the past (last year) that it doesn’t matter too much what Paul George does. Winning the series means everyone else did their job. Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young need to keep up their hot streak, Jeff Teague needs to try to keep up with Kyrie Irving, and the bench mob needs to be productive. With the margin for error so small, they can’t afford to have struggling players playing significant minutes.