The Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers meet in the first round of the playoffs. How well do both teams stack up against each other position by position?
It took all 82 games to secure it, but the Indiana Pacers did scrape into the playoffs on the back of a 5 game winning streak.
Their reward for the final game win over the Atlanta Hawks is the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference, and a matchup with the 2nd seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.
Facing off with LeBron James, who hasn’t lost game in the first round since 2012(!!!), might not feel like too much of a reward for the Pacers, but Paul George and the Pacers have always played LeBron as tough as anyone outside of Kawhi Leonard. We’re going to take a look at the matchups and see how the teams stack up.
Kyrie Irving vs Jeff Teague
Kyrie Irving is one of the best ball handlers and scorers in the NBA, and as long as he’s healthy, he’s going to win the point guard matchup against most players.
Jeff Teague is no different here. Teague’s defense has been… okay… since joining the Pacers, but nowhere near the level needed to slow down Irving.
Kyrie’s going to get his points, and he’ll probably go off at least once for a big game. This matchup isn’t absurdly lopsided though, because Irving’s defense is atrocious. He’s been a net negative on the road, and playing at home isn’t a magic salve for his defense — it just boosts his offense.
The arrow goes squarely Irving’s way on this matchup, but Teague should still be able to get to the cup and distribute as normal. If Teague can have a big game or two, that will help keep this matchup close.
We’re assuming both are healthy here, by the way. Irving has been dealing with knee tendonitis, and Teague sprained his ankle in Game 82
J.R. Smith vs Monta Ellis
J.R. Smith is having his worst year in a decade, and the 2nd worst of his career. At only 34.6% from the field, Smith is struggling in multiple facets after returning from injury. However, in his only game against the Pacers this year, J.R. looked quite like himself, scoring 18 on 6-11 from 3 (including one directly over Monta Ellis’ outstretched fingertips).
If the Pacers come up against the guy Smith has been all year, this is a wash. Smith can shoot right over the top of Ellis though, is stronger, and is a much better defender (who thought we’d ever say that about J.R. Smith?).
Ellis has been moderately better of late, but definitely looks to be on the downslope of his career. The arrow probably points Cleveland’s way, but it may be close. The Pacers could win this matchup if GRIII/C.J. Miles/Lance Stephenson wind up starting. Nate’s given no indication that that is the case though.
(This breakdown is assuming Nate McMillan sticks with Monta Ellis starting at the 2.)
LeBron James vs Paul George
This is the matchup everyone is here for. LeBron, despite being 32 years old and taking on a massive workload (10th in the NBA in minutes played) has continued to be the best player alive.
Paul George is no slouch, and is itching to reclaim his place in the ultra rare air of the top 10 guys in the NBA.
In their last matchup, LeBron and PG went toe to toe in a double OT game, with PG putting up 43 and Bron putting up 41. LeBron gets the edge in this matchup — he gets the edge in any matchup until someone beats him — but PG can hold his own.
LeBron didn’t seem quick enough to stick with George’s flaming hot midrange game, and his 3 point shooting comes and goes. James still wins this matchup, but it could wind up being closer than most expect.
Playoff Paul George will be greatly needed.
Thaddeus Young vs Kevin Love
Kevin Love has continued to do Kevin Love things for the Cavs. He’s having his best season in a Cleveland uniform, putting up highs in Effective Field Goal percentage, points, and rebounds, and is boasting a healthy PER of 21.1.
Thaddeus Young has looked better of late after healing from an injury to his left wrist. He’s still not shooting 3’s with the (moderate) frequency he did early in the year, but the rest of his game looks healthy.
Love is the better overall player here, but he tends to go through long stretches where he just hangs out at the 3 point line on offense and then plays bad defense on the other end of the floor. Love probably has an advantage in the post on Thad, but he can’t hang with Young in space on the other end. He can probably put a halt to some of Thad’s 2nd chance scoring with his rebounding prowess, and it will take a concerted effort by the Pacers bigs to keep him off the offensive glass throughout the series.
The arrow here (again) goes to Cleveland, but Thad can “win” this matchup. Love’s counting stats will probably look better, but Thad Young can affect the game in a lot of ways that Love just doesn’t, and he could turn the tide of this matchup if he’s 100%.
Tristan Thompson vs Myles Turner
Tristan Thompson — he of the 5 year, 82 million dollar contract — rebounds the hell out of the ball. He’s a good defender, can hang with quicker players in space a bit, and probably won’t be moved too much in the post. He’s short for a center (listed at 6’9), but very stout.
Myles Turner has a few inches on him, but may struggle significantly with Thompson’s strength and rebounding prowess.
However, Myles has a handful of advantages in this matchup. Thompson has little to no shooting range, which allows Turner to patrol and protect the paint without losing track of his man. Thompson will also struggle to get all the way out in coverage. If Turner is willing (and has the green light) to fire away from downtown, Thompson might struggle quite a bit on defense.
The arrow here goes slightly to Myles Turner, but Thompson earned that huge contract in the playoffs. It’s on Myles to accept the responsibility of keeping him off the offensive glass, and that will be a full time job.
The Benches
The Cavaliers bench is composed of guys who like to shoot without dribbling and Iman Shumpert. Shump is a “defensive specialist” who shot the 3 reasonably this year (36%), but posted a Defensive Rating of 112.
The rest of the key guys on Cleveland’s bench — Kyle Korver, Channing Fry, Deron Williams — are all long in tooth, and known for scoring, especially from deep. Any all bench unit the Cavs throw out will likely be a defensive sieve, but any of those three guys is capable of lighting teams up in an instant (Pacers fans are all too familiar with the Kyle Korver “I can’t miss” games.). Deron Williams has stabilized the bench units some, and there’s still a productive player in there. However: If the Cavs bench isn’t hitting 3’s, they’re a net negative.
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The Pacers bench has been, well, interesting this year. In constant flux, no one outside of the org even knows what the bench rotation will be after 82 games. As far as is public, Monta Ellis will continue to start at the 2. Lance Stephenson, C.J. Miles, Aaron Brooks, and Kevin Seraphin have rounded out those bench units of late, and the bench has actually hummed since Lance got there.
Al Jefferson recently returned from injury, but hasn’t seen the court since being available again. Glenn Robinson III is still out with a strained calf, and the original expected timetable has since passed without updates. Getting GRIII back would be a boon for the Pacers bench, but it’s hard to count on that at this point. The Pacers have tinkered with all of their bigs getting minutes this year — Al Jefferson, Lavoy Allen, Rakeem Christmas, and Kevin Seraphin — and it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the 4 gets minutes against the backup Cleveland bigs.
When the benches clash — and it will probably be mixed units, for the most part, as most of the starters are going to be playing 35+ minutes — the Pacers have a real opportunity. The Cavs bench can score, and will eviscerate porous defense, but their bench is very short on defense. Aaron Brooks will struggle to guard Deron Williams’, um, heft, but the rest of Cleveland’s bench can be stopped with speed and discipline. Frye is really no more than a catch and shoot guy anymore, and Korver is in the same boat. Williams can bully in the post and whip smart passes, but his dribble drive should be containable. If the Pacers bench can guard the 3 point line, and Lance’s magic doesn’t run out, the Pacers bench should (gulp) come out ahead when there are direct matchups.
Final Prediction
I can’t bet against the Fightin’ Paul Georges.
Next: Kevin Seraphin: Better Late Than Never
I predict these two teams will play basketball at least 5 times, and one of them will make the conference semis.