The injury to Monta Ellis has once again opened the door to the Indiana Pacers starting someone else as the shooting guard.
The Indiana Pacers have a decision to make.
Who should be their starting shooting guard?
With Monta Ellis sidelined with a groin injury, the Pacers have had a pair of successful outings without their regular starter. At 31-years of age, it isn’t as if Ellis is the long-term plan for Indiana.
So who should start instead of Ellis?
Should Glenn Robinson III continue to fill in? Should a more experienced veteran like Rodney Stuckey step up? Maybe add a shooter in the form of C.J. Miles?
Or maybe he should keep his spot?
The 8 Points, 9 Seconds staff is ready to make their case for each of the possibilites.
The Case for Starting Monarch of the Glenn
By Jon Washburn
We are more of a quarter of the way through season 2 of the Monta Ellis experience, and though he brings an attitude and certain flare to the lineup that the Pacers have lacked for, well, forever, it seems obvious that as of December 12, 2016, Monta Ellis no longer has it all.
I am not here to criticize Ellis’s work ethic (he’s been great and fought through injuries) or character (he’s been a model citizen in Indianapolis); the fact is that his lack of shooting and his defensive limitations can no longer be counterbalanced by the rest of his skill set.
The Pacers have (probably) underperformed so far this year, and it’s time to change the starting lineup. Moving Monta Ellis to the bench is the most obvious solution since this move would (seemingly) give the bench some offensive juice while (conceivably) upgrading the starting unit’s defense and shooting. But who should start in his stead? The only equation that matters is Opportunity Cost + Chemistry + Upside.
The only solution is Glenn Robinson, III.
Opportunity Cost
Opportunity cost is a key concept in economics, and it’s equally important on the basketball floor. Basically, every time you choose to buy (or play) one item (or thing), you are choosing to not buy (or play) another item (or player). If one decides that Monta Ellis should no longer start for the Pacers, then he has to decide who should fill his spot. Presumably, the only options are C. J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, and Glenn Robinson, III.
GR3 is preferable to both guys for three reasons.
First, he’s excelled in the starting lineup this year, posting averages of 15.2 points and 6.4 rebounds on 49-percent shooting in the five games he’s started (compare this to his overall averages of 6.3 points and 2.7 rebounds on 45-percent shooting)
Second, he’s shooting 39-percent from long range, a mark that is nine points higher than Monta Ellis and fourteen points higher than Rodney Stuckey. But it’s not all about the shooting — if it were, then C. J. Miles would be the opposite answer — it’s about the opportunity cost.
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Miles is a veteran. He’s been on fire all year, regardless of his context. Place Miles in the starting lineup and he will stretch the floor for his teammates. Bring him off the bench, and he will do the exact same thing. Glenn Robinson, III’s game is different. There are certain players that just play better as starters. Consider Andre Roberson for the Thunder last year. Roberson was an incredibly limited offensive player, and teams completely left him alone on that end of the floor. However, he proved to be a dangerous player with Durant and Westbrook because of his ferocious defensive capabilities and because their presence earned him a few more inches to where he could occasionally be dangerous. If Roberson played off the bench, he would have just been another limited offensive player with good athleticism. In the starting lineup, he was a huge net-positive.
Now, here is where you say, “But the Pacers don’t have KD and Westbrook. They don’t have either KD or Westbrook.”
Of course, you would be right. But Glenn Robinson’s game makes a lot more sense as the fifth starter than it does as a bench player for this Indiana Pacers team. With the starters, he provides an immediate defensive versatility (the Pacers could conceivably switch 2-4 with him, Paul George, and Thad Young) and size that they currently lack. He upgrades their shooting, and he doesn’t need the ball as much as Monta Ellis does to be a threat. Further, he has been thriving in the starting lineup this year, while also struggling off the bench.If Glenn Robinson plays better with the starters than he does off the bench, and C. J. Miles provides the same consistent level of play no matter where he’s playing, then the net-gain from starting Robinson would conceivably also give the Pacers the highest possible boost.
If Glenn Robinson plays better with the starters than he does off the bench, and C. J. Miles provides the same consistent level of play no matter where he’s playing, then the net-gain from starting Robinson would conceivably also give the Pacers the highest possible boost.
Chemistry
I don’t think Monta Ellis has been bad from a chemistry standpoint, and I actually wouldn’t mind if he (or Stuckey) continued to close games for the Pacers.
However, Robinson’s inclusion in the starting lineup would most likely raise the usage rates of Indiana’s two best offensive players — Jeff Teague and Paul George. His presence would stretch the floor around those two guys more than Ellis, and his defensive versatility would enable Paul George to occasionally rest from defending the other team’s best player every minute he’s in the game.
Upside
Offensively, I think that C. J. Miles would make the Pacers’ starting lineup slightly more dangerous than GRIII. He’s that good of a shooter, and his off-the-bounce game is underrated. However, he’s also 29 years old and injury prone. One could make a compelling argument that Miles should come off the bench if only to save his body. But further, at this point, we all know what we have in C. J. Miles. While he may be this same, consistent knock-down shooter for the next five years, Glenn Robinson just turned 23, and he’s shown flashes that would greatly benefit the Pacers in the long run.
It’s possible that Robinson is not going to be an NBA rotation player (I mused as much this pre-season myself), but wouldn’t it be good to really discover what you have in him? If he busts, then the team can move on.
But he might hit, and if he does, then the Pacers have another young starter to play around Paul George and Myles Turner, and potentially one more reason for Paul George to stay when he looks at his free agent options.
Does this move the needle?
Honestly, I’m not sure. GRob might not be ready, and he might never be ready. But looking forward, even if you think Monta Ellis can turn it around this year, what are you really hoping to get from him next year and the year after? I think Monta could thrive as a bench spark plug. Jamal Crawford has shone brightly in the twilight of his career in such a role, and while Crawford is a far superior shooter to Ellis, it’s not hard to envision Ellis lighting up opposing bench units with Al Jefferson and C. J. Miles. Robinson’s addition to the starting lineup also gives the bench a real identity. Big Al post ups surrounded by Miles’s spacing and Ellis’s slashing just might be devastating from night to night.
It also might flop. That’s a real possibility. But I think the status quo is broken, and since it’s broken, then you might as well try to fix it.
Get Stuckey
By Will Furr
Monta “Have it all” Ellis is one of the premier 2nd round picks in NBA history.
His scoring ability, fearlessness, and toughness are widely recognized and respected, and by most accounts, he’s been a great teammate during his time as an Indiana Pacer. Ellis has had a great career, and should have plenty left in the tank. He may have lost a step, but it would be foolish to think he’s finished in the NBA.
It’s much less foolish to think his time as a starter for Indiana (and maybe as a Pacer in general) is coming to an end, or should be coming to an end.
Monta has been absolutely torched by seemingly any and every starting 2 guard this season. From otherworldly scorers like Klay Thompson and C.J. McCollum to middling guys like Wes Matthews and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, teams have come out with the obvious intent of targeting Monta, and it’s worked time and time again. Ellis’s defensive shortcomings have put the Pacers in a hole early on this season, and have left the team fighting uphill battles against scorers who have found the range and gotten comfortable.
It’s much less foolish to think his time as a starter for Indiana (and maybe as a Pacer in general) is coming to an end, or should be coming to an end.
Unless you’re playing Paul George at shooting guard, the Pacers don’t have anything close to a defensive stopper at the 2. Monta Ellis, Rodney Stuckey, Glenn Robinson III, and C.J. Miles all have varying degrees of defensive warts, but Ellis is possibly the worst of all four. He gets easily screened off his man, both on and off the ball, and his lack of size (he’s generously listed at 6’3) means that if he’s even a beat late, it’s difficult for him to challenge the shot of most shooting guards in the league. In an ideal Pacers world, C.J. Miles starts and provides size and shooting while his clone comes off the bench.
Unfortunately, the Pacers don’t have a clone of Miles.Enter: Rodney Stuckey.
Enter: Rodney Stuckey.
Stuckey and Ellis are similar players (the problem of their overlap has been discussed time and again, by us here at 8 points 9 seconds, by our friends on the Miller Time Podcast, and many, many other places). This fact, while causing roster problems in general, provides one benefit: Swapping Rodney Stuckey in for Monta Ellis doesn’t force a huge shift in philosophy. Both are (theoretically) attacking guards. They make their money getting to the bucket, getting to the line, and punishing teams who leave them from the midrange.
Swapping them doesn’t cause a schematic shift, but there is some recent evidence to support it.
Stuckey’s size (listed as 2 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier) is more helpful against most shooting guards. He has played the full 4th quarter in the Pacers last 3 games, and the Pacers are +28 during those 36 minutes, including two comeback wins. Stuckey doesn’t provide the starters much 3-point shooting (he’s even worse than Ellis this year), and he’s struggled with consistency throughout his long career, but the team has just looked better when he shares the floor with the starters.
In a season where the Pacers are barely holding at .500 and trying to convince Paul George that he can win a title here, that’s enough of an impetus to give it a try.
Miles Ahead
By Josh Padmore
Monta Ellis starting at the two last season wasn’t too much of a problem for the Indiana Pacers.
That’s because they had George Hill, who would help him on a nightly basis covering the tougher match-ups at shooting guard. With Jeff Teague now playing the point, Ellis has had no choice but to guard the (typically much bigger) opposing guard. Teams definitely take note of that and look to take advantage. Especially during the game in Charlotte earlier this season. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went right at Ellis very early into the game.
Monta coming off the bench as the Sixth Man could be good for the Pacers. He looked great in his lone game this year in Philadelphia. Ellis scored 19 points and even got up a season-high 19 shot attempts. He’d be the go-to-guy of the second-unit.
C.J. Miles has started three games this season for the Pacers. He’s played better when coming off the bench, but it’s something the Pacers should look at.
Miles is much bigger than Monta. His trademark in the NBA isn’t his defense, but he can do a serviceable job of guarding. Also, I think inserting Miles would benefit the Pacers tremendously offensively.
If Jeff Teague and Paul George are having big nights, the opposing defense will primarily be focusing on them. They could forget about the man who’s shooting 45+% from deep this year: C.J. Miles. Miles is much better when he’s got his feet set ready to shoot a three-point shot, as opposed to shooting an off-balance fadeaway three-pointer. He would get those clean looks playing with a starting unit consisting of Jeff Teague, Paul George, Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner.
Glenn Robinson III is probably Indiana’s best option if we’re talking defense. He’s looked great in his previous 5 starts (15.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG), but we can’t forget about C.J. Miles. Rodney Stuckey is another good option, but he typically is the engine of the Pacers’ second-unit. Without him in the second-unit, you’re losing a guy who simply makes things happen. Aaron Brooks would probably be the guy of the Rodney Stuckey-less bench that would have to do a majority of creating opportunities for himself and others unless Monta Ellis does indeed come off the bench.
Monta Ellis Still Has It All
By Ryan Eggers
Arguing over who is the best player of the ones involved in this debate is a tedious and lost cause. Roles on this squad are more important than ever as the team grows under Nate McMillan, and Ellis’ best fit on this team is to stick in the starting lineup.
The dude is an accomplished vet, and likely the most consistent of all of the options for the job. It might be dazzling to see GR3 and Stuckey pop off for a game or two, but Ellis will quietly drop 15+ points with 5+ assists and no one even bats an eye. It seems the Pacers fandom might be taking his talents for granted, seeing that he’s oftentimes the weakest link of a team that has been struggling to win games this year.
But this is a guy that will hang with the starters every night, will never struggle to keep up, and will always find ways to produce on offense even if his shot isn’t falling. He has many defensive faults, and it may be appropriate at times to swap Ellis out for a bigger body for certain matchups, but for the most part, stick with what works.
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This team’s issues go far beyond Ellis, and swapping Ellis out with anyone isn’t going to solve the problem. It could, however, mess up chemistry mid-season and put this team even further behind where it is now.
Ellis has one thing that seemingly no other candidate for the 2 position has (except Robinson, for now): durability. It’s a little ironic to say that after he missed a game last night, but that’s the only game he’s missed due to injury this season, and he’s clocked in for at least 80 games in each of the last four seasons. If Stuckey or Miles are plugged into the lineup, it’s almost a guarantee that there will be 20+ games throughout the year where a replacement will be needed. Limiting their minutes in a bench role not only mitigates those injury issues a bit, it also ensures the starting lineup is consistent and can grow together without incident throughout the year.
The Pacers have already had their fair share of injury issues in the starting lineup this season; it’s time to settle down and give a starting lineup time to develop. Ellis is the best man for the job.
Also, another thing that is seemingly forgotten about Ellis: he’s a solid passer for his role, even with Teague by his side. He’s averaging about four a game, but can get it going during any given game. It’s not like him being able to produce assists is all that important in the grand scheme of things, but it matters that he can move the ball and not let a possession become stagnant in the starting lineup. Stuckey can dish to an extent, but Miles and Robinson would struggle in that respect. If they aren’t having a good night shooting the ball … they will harm the offense. Miles just recently had a game (Phoenix) where he went 0 for 5 from deep, and he put up 2 points, 3 boards, and no assists. That can’t happen to a starter, ever.
The Pacers have already had their fair share of injury issues in the starting lineup this season; it’s time to settle down and give a starting lineup time to develop. Ellis is the best man for the job.
The current bench needs to stay as it is. The fear with Ellis entering the role of the sixth man is that he would take over and turn it into a Lance Stephenson role, where everyone just sits back and watches his do something. That might be fun to watch when it’s going well, but it doesn’t make for a good bench. Ellis isn’t Jamal Crawford; he only shoots 30% from deep. He shouldn’t be given the keys to do whatever he wants on the floor.
The argument for Robinson to be inserted into the starting lineup is that he plays better as a starter than a rotational guy. Well, in that case, he either needs to 1. become consistently good enough to warrant a starting role or 2. learn how to play in the rotation. I don’t think anyone believes Robinson is the best player of the four, and the starting lineup shouldn’t take a hit because Robinson needs training wheels to be able to perform night in and night out. If he’s not NBA ready, he’s not.
Miles, outside of aforementioned injury concerns, is really needed on the bench. Without him, the bench looks like Stuckey, Ellis, Robinson, Allen, Jefferson and maybe Brooks if a role is found for him. Outside of Brooks and at times Robinson, there is absolutely no 3-point shooting in that lineup.
None.
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Miles, when he can get going, provides a huge spark of points off of the bench, which is desperately needed for that unit. When he can’t find his stroke, it’s of a lot less consequence than if he’s getting 30+ minutes as a starter. Stuckey has been valuable many times this season, but he is, if anything, a poor man’s Ellis in terms of play style. A little more inconsistent, a lot more injured, and overall a guy that has always seemed to thrive on the bench. No reason to change that.
If Ellis proves to be an absolute detriment to this team defensively over the next few months, then it’ll be time to start considering a change. But Ellis has proven that he is going to be the most consistent and reliable player out of all of the options the Pacers currently have. Is it exactly ideal? No. But this team’s problems run deeper than the 2 position, and they shouldn’t be trying to fix a squeaky door when the roof is leaking. Allow this lineup, the lineup that Bird constructed over the off-season, to try and get things done together. They haven’t had much time at all this season to do that. If it doesn’t work out, then changes can be made.
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This lineup isn’t going to magically become fixed or better overnight. Swapping out Ellis is more likely to do harm than good, and there’s no reason to take that risk.