1. Fact or Fiction: The Indiana Pacers will win 46 or more games this year?
Will Furr: Fact. I have predicted 48 wins. The fact that the Pacers are likely starting four above-average NBA players alongside Paul George — and the fact that they actually have NBA players on the bench — makes the Pacers floor relatively high. The fit of the pieces appears highly questionable, and the Pacers will be relying heavily on Myles Turner, but it’s hard to see this group falling too far below this mark.
Jay Neal: Fact. This is a better offensive team than in previous years with more weapons and a variety of ways to score. I believe the Pacers have the talent and ability (with an edict from Larry Bird) to play a more aesthetically pleasing brand of basketball. I expect them to be in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency, something that happened only once in the Frank Vogel era. If they are a middle of the road team in defensive efficiency, they should win more than last season.
Dylan Hughes: Fact. I understand some analysts worry about the defense, but no one seems to be talking about how good the offense will be. Nate McMillan is not as good a defensive coach as Mike Budenholzer, but the Hawks did have a top defense starting Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver two years ago. Teague and Ellis aren’t going to lock anyone up, but those two together could generate a lot of steals. And with the way this team runs, that could turn into a lot of points. Throw in Paul George and Myles Turner’s development, and I can see 46 or more wins.
Jared Wade: Fact. The Indiana Pacers managed 45 wins last season and everyone who watched closely knows that could have easily been more. They lost what felt like two dozen games late. Some of that probably showed their limitations. Other nights it was dumb bad luck. And on a few occasions (two against the Bulls), the NBA admitted to blown calls that probably turned the tide. They probably should have won closer to 50 last year. We saw their ability when they nearly knocked off the two-seed Raptors. And while the new pieces are going to fit weirdly now, the people they added are very good at basketball. They also have Paul George and play in the East. They will get to 46.
2. Fact or Fiction: The Indiana Pacers will have home-court advantage in the first round of the 2017 playoffs?
Furr: F………act. The Pacers are probably about the fourth best team in the East, but any playoff spot outside of first place is a possibility for this squad. If everything comes together and goes right, the Pacers could push Boston and/or Toronto in the top half of the East. Both are probably better teams, but Paul George is the best player in either matchup, and that matters. If injuries hit, or the Pacers can’t defend/rebound, they could be hitting the road first round, but I expect the Pacers to host a series this year.
Neal: Fact. The East, while better than in years past, is still mixture of good but not great teams (outside of Cleveland). Indiana finished three games out of possibly having home-court in last year’s playoffs. I believe the Pacers have improved their roster while others (Atlanta, Miami) have lost key members of their core. Indiana will need to be better finishers, though, as they lost an inordinate amount of close games last season by being clueless on offense.
Hughes: Fact. The Cavaliers, Celtics, and Raptors seem to be locks to take three of the top four seeds, and that fourth spot gets interesting. A lot of people think Detroit could make a jump, and Atlanta stays in the mix. But I think the Pacers take the fourth seed at the very lowest. I think the defense will end up being a lot better than people think. It probably won’t be top 10, but somewhere in the middle of the road — along with the offensive leap they should make — means they could get close to 50 wins.
Wade: Fact. They probably can’t be better than Toronto — and obviously not the Cavs — but their upside is as high as any other team in the East. People forget just how many NBA teams are running out hodge-podge rotations full of players under 22 and guys on short-term, no-future contracts just to keep the salary cap clean for the future. The Pacers go 10 deep with solid pros and only Myles Turner lacks experience. They have capable veterans who have proven themselves for a half-decade or more up and down the roster. That will let them roll over many lesser squads on talent and competence alone.
3. Fact or Fiction: Paul George will finish in the top five in MVP voting?
Furr: Fiction. Paul George is phenomenal, easily one of the top 10 players of the NBA, but he’s not going to get much love for MVP. LeBron James, Kawhii Leonard, Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, possibly Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis if he’s healthy, Karl-Anthony Towns (it’s coming). The list of people he’s up against goes on. PG would have to go November Paul George for the entire season, something he’s never shown the capability to do.
Neal: Fiction. Paul George is really good. Easily a top 10 player in this league. However, I can’t see him finishing top five in MVP voting due to the team’s record. I don’t see the Pacers winning 50 games, so it’s hard for me to envision George garnering enough national attention to be thought of as MVP over guys who will end up in the top five conversation. George would have to carry the Pacers to a Top 3 seed in the East, at least, to gain that level of consideration.
Hughes: Fiction. I can easily see Paul George having the best season of his career, and as one of the better players in the league, that should bode well for his MVP chances. But to be seriously considered as an MVP candidate, the player’s team usually has to be a top two seed in their conference. The Pacers could get there, but I don’t think they will. And George could make the top five based on his numbers alone, but there are too many other players I expect to play better — Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, of course, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Blake Griffin, Kawhi Leonard. George has a shot at it, but he’ll need a lot of things to go right.
Wade: Fiction. It’s likely the Pacers just won’t be quite good enough to put him in that tier when guys like LeBron, Curry, Durant, and Kawhi are pushing 60+ wins. There is also Westbrook likely to average a triple-double-like line and Harden set to explode in a D’Antoni-run offense. Paul George will have his best season ever — but probably finish sixth in MVP voting.
4. Fact or Fiction: Monta Ellis and Jeff Teague as a back court will bring more benefits than problems?
Furr: Fiction — but I believe it will be closer than it might look. Both are small, but if they’re healthy and able to shoot league average from deep (Monta’s been close for a good portion of his career, and Teague had a career year last year at 40%) they’re going to be a headache to defend. That being said, I think they’re fine regardless, in that they won’t kill the team. There’s a potential path to them being a net positive though.
Neal: Fiction. There are certainly benefits to having both Teague and Ellis on the roster. However, I think having them as a duo on the court together brings more problems, particularly defensively. Teague is an OK defender. Ellis was a much better on-the-ball defender than I expected last year. However, his off-the-ball defense left a lot to be desired. I think they can work out the offensive end, as both do need the ball to be successful, but I expect the team defense to take a step back due to the Teague/Ellis pairing.
Hughes: Fiction. I would wake up everyday and go to sleep every night with a smile on my face if the Pacers could sucker another team into taking Monta Ellis while giving back something useful. This team really needs shooting, and really needs defense. Ellis brings neither. He’ll score more than last year as there will be more fastbreak opportunities. Jeff Teague’s penetration will open things up a bit, too. All of this is about Ellis, really, because I see Teague having a nice bounce-back season. Even next to George Hill — a good shooter and defender — I didn’t like Ellis’s fit. He just really shouldn’t be starting on a team anymore that actually has hopes of achieving success.
Wade: Fact. It won’t be pretty and the defense might be a complete nightmare. But they’ll get buckets. This team is going to be fast and put up points. It won’t be ideal by any means and shouldn’t be the pairing any team seeks to put together. But Larry Bird says he wants points. They will get them.
5. Fact or Fiction: Myles Turner will average 16 or more points per game?
Furr: Fiction. Myles Turner is going to be a critical player to this Pacers team, ready or not. That’s not a question. However, he’s going to be sharing the floor with four proven NBA scorers, and there just may not be a ton of opportunities for him. His jumper already looked NBA ready last year, and he’s got a great post play mentor in Al Jefferson. But unless Nate McMillan makes it a point to feature him, he probably won’t break 13-14 points per game.
Neal: Fiction. Turner enters the season with a much different role than his rookie campaign. He is the team’s lone rim protector, according to the projected rotation. I think the responsibility of that role and effort required to execute it could keep him from reaching 16 points per game. I anticipate Turner struggling with foul trouble at times as he bangs with bigger, stronger players and rotates to impede opponents from getting to the rim. I believe his offense may suffer as a result.
Hughes: Fiction. Before seeing this question I actually had him at about a 15-point, 9-rebound average. He’s going to be a really good player someday, but for this season, he may be the Pacers’ fourth or fifth offensive option. He will need to focus more on the defensive end, as he is now the one holding down the fort at the rim, and McMillan might not want to wear him out on the other end. Unless they move Ellis early on in the season for a lower-usage starting two guard, allowing Turner more shots, I think he averages below 16 points a night for this season.
Wade: Fiction: Not this year. But soon enough, young fella. Soon enough
Next: Experts Say the Pacers Are Doomed for a .500 Season
For more predictions about all things 2016-17 Pacers, check out our staff picks here for win totals, playoff seed, scoring champ, biggest disapointment and more.