Larry Bird wants the Indiana Pacers to score more than 105 points a game this season.
Larry Bird has once again stated that he’d like the Pacers to score more points.
The question is, how will Nate McMillan’s revamped roster be able to achieve that?
Larry Bird has once again brought us Groundhog Day in August as the headlines read “I want the Pacers to score more points” day after day. This time, he reminded us during an interview on the Dan Patrick Show.
This time around, though, the bar is set at a definitive number. “We want a style where we can score… I’d like to score 105 points a game or maybe 106, but still defend the way we have,” said Larry Bird on the Dan Patrick Show
“We want a style where we can score… I’d like to score 105 points a game or maybe 106, but still defend the way we have,” said Larry Bird on the Dan Patrick Show
Bird wants the extra points while also remaining under the assumption that the Pacers can defend like they have in years past. And this expectation comes despite the departure of the head coach — Frank Vogel — that brought the Pacers, at Bird’s request, from 97.3 PPG to 102.3 PPG in one year while leading the team to third in the NBA defensive rating.
It’s clear that last year’s improvement wasn’t high enough for Bird, and he wants to push the bar even further. Jumping from 102 points to (for the sake of arguing let’s take the low end of the rate) 105 points would’ve put the Pacers squarely in seventh place in team PPG last season, only a smidge behind Portland and Boston for the sixth and fifth spots.
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Expecting to be a near top-five offensive team isn’t a particularly outlandish request, though with the team’s roster last year it might’ve been one. However, Bird seemed to take steps in the right direction this offseason with the addition of players like Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, and Al Jefferson — all players that have made a name through their offensive ability and less so their defensive.
On the opposite side of the coin, however, Bird decided to replace Vogel with assistant head coach Nate McMillan, who on paper is batting about an .000 on the things Bird wanted in a new leader.
During the interview, Bird had some praise for McMillan, saying that “Nate’s got over 900 games that he’s coached in the NBA and he’s got a style…I think he’s going to do an excellent job for us.”
McMillan has coached over 900 NBA games, yes. He might do an excellent job for the Pacers, yes. He has a style, yes.
But that style? Slow-paced. In fact, McMillan coached, in sequential order, the 24th, 27th, 15th, 27th, 28th, 29th, 29th, 30th, 30th, and 30th fastest teams in the NBA in his head coaching tenure. Also, the Defensive Rating of those teams were 17th, 17th, 27th, 27th, 28th, 26th, 17th, 13th, 15th, and 14th in the league. None of those numbers are close to third.
So, maintaining the defensive prowess of Vogel’s Pacers while bumping up the PPG total to 105 may be a more daunting task than the roster may indicate.
Next: Slide 2 of 4: How Do Pacers Reach 105 ppg?
The question is how do they get there? What will it take for the Pacers to increase their PPG by three points? Can it be done while maintaining an elite defense?
To answer this question, the makeup of the new roster needs to be examined. While no one can say for sure how players will improve or regress, and no one knows how a player will fit into a new offensive scheme, these next few facts and figures will make a case for each player to “generally be better” or “generally be worse” (or generally about the same) than their offensive performance and/or the offensive performance of their predecessor last year.
Jeff Teague: He’s replacing George Hill as the starting PG, who last season put up 12.1 PPG and 3.5 APG. Meanwhile, Teague put up 15.9 PPG and 5.9 APG. Basic math will tell you that his offensive production will generally be better than Hill’s, but a bigger curiosity lies in how his aggressive style of play will affect the ball-handling Paul George and Monta Ellis.
Teague was fourth in the league in drives per game last season (11.1), but passed the ball rather than finishing at the hoop on 36.3% of those drives. If he can create open looks for shooters like George and C.J. Miles with his attacking nature, that’s great. If he takes away opportunities from such players, that’s not so great.
Monta Ellis: Ellis should presumably be the returning starting shooting guard for the Pacers next year, as there has no been no indication of the contrary. He averaged a solid 13.8 PPG and 4.7 APG last season, but it seems as if he is the likeliest candidate to take a step back next year.
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With the addition of Teague comes the subtraction of ball availability for Ellis. In his role as a pseudo-point guard last year, Ellis racked up 391 points off of possessions where he was the primary ball-handler. That total was good for 23rd in the NBA, and first on the Pacers (George finished 27th in the NBA with 348 points).
The odds of Teague being forced into a passive offensive role are slim, and the odds of the ball being George’s hands less than it was last year is even slimmer, so it’s fair to estimate that, simply due to another mouth needing to be fed, Ellis will generally be worse when it comes to raw offensive numbers next year.
Paul George: One of the most fascinating storylines for this upcoming season is where George will land in terms of rank amongst the elite NBA players today.
Another year out from his horrifying injury, George is entering his prime at a time where he’s been given plenty of offensive tools to help him. George likely won’t see the ball in his hands any less than he did last year, though the addition of Teague to the team may change the way George utilizes his time with the rock.
When George was in isolation situations last year, he did not fare very well. He shot 34.4% in such plays, while only scoring .81 points a possession. In a 100-possession game, George’s isolation’s would lead to 81 points, which is less than 105, if my math is correct.
The addition of Teague should lead to George having less pressure to create points on his own, as Teague dishes him the ball on drives for nice catch and shoot scenarios.
Given that his new point guard compliments him offensively and there’s a 0% chance his role from last year is reduced, it’s likely that George will generally be better offensively next year.
Thaddeus Young: No words are necessary to tell you that Young will generally be better than Lavoy Allen, who started 28 games for the Pacers at power forward last season — not to mention three playoff games.
A better question would be: will a frontcourt featuring Young and Myles Turner be better than one featuring Turner and Ian Mahinmi, who is now a Wizard? Based on pure numbers, it seems as if the answer is yes.
Young averaged 15.1 PPG playing alongside undoubtedly a better offensive center than Turner in Brook Lopez. Mahinmi on the other hand, while a solid rim protector among other traits, scored his career high during the first round series against the Raptors last season. That career high was 22. That’s the only time Mahinmi has ever scored 20 points in a game.
Young reached that mark 12 times just in last season alone. But outside of his own scoring potential, Young opens up a screen game that should complement George and other scorers well- a screen game that Turner struggled with in his opening year.
All across the board, Young spells better offense for the frontcourt.
Myles Turner: Turner will be entering somewhat new territory as the presumptive center nominee for the Pacers National Committee in 2016-17, but the obvious answer for a young player like him on the rise is that he’ll generally be better offensively next season.
This is partly due to having gained experience, partly due to him stepping into a more comfortable role, and partly due to having the starting position for (hopefully) all 82 games.
Take note of this stat: Young finished fifth in the league in FGM from less than ten feet last season. Mahinmi finished 43rd. With attention on Young around the rim offensively, Turner should be able to spread out and make mid-range jumpers, the shot which produced 38.1% of his points last season.
The Bench: Considering most of these guys will put up scoring outputs in the range of two to eight points, this group will be lumped together.
All of the aspects of the team which should help Paul George this season (better point guard play from Teague, better screen action from Young) should also help C.J. Miles, who also won’t have to suffer through guarding the opposing team’s power forward next season like he did last year.
Al Jefferson, one of the best offensive centers in the past decade, immediately brings offense to the rotational frontcourt. His 12 PPG in a season where he primarily came off the bench will be much appreciated in Indiana, though his mentoring of Turner may be even more valuable. The only worry with him is durability. Aaron Brooks stepping into the backup point guard position is a mystery, though the sentiment among most people is that anything is an upgrade from what Ty Lawson showed us last year. The defense of Solomon Hill will be missed much more than his offense, though the Pacers didn’t work on their wing rotation at all in the offseason. Trusting Stuckey to bounce back may be a mistake, and not adding any type of “catch and shoot” player could arguably be a misuse of the other new offensive pieces the Pacers acquired this offseason.
Aaron Brooks stepping into the backup point guard position is a mystery, though the sentiment among most people is that anything is an upgrade from what Ty Lawson showed us last year. The defense of Solomon Hill will be missed much more than his offense, though the Pacers didn’t work on their wing rotation at all in the offseason. Trusting Stuckey to bounce back may be a mistake, and not adding any type of “catch and shoot” player could arguably be a misuse of the other new offensive pieces the Pacers acquired this offseason.
The defense of Solomon Hill will be missed much more than his offense, though the Pacers didn’t work on their wing rotation at all in the offseason. Trusting Stuckey to bounce back may be a mistake, and not adding any type of “catch and shoot” player could arguably be a misuse of the other new offensive pieces the Pacers acquired this offseason.
Trusting Stuckey to bounce back may be a mistake, and not adding any type of “catch and shoot” player could arguably be a misuse of the other new offensive pieces the Pacers acquired this offseason.
However, with some of the eggs that that 2015-16 bench dropped, especially in the postseason, it probably won’t get much worse. It’s safe to say that the bench will be generally the same, if not better offensively.
Next: Slide 3 of 4: Generally Better But ....
A lot of “generally betters” in the previous list would seemingly indicate that the team is at least three points better than it was last year.
This may be, or it may also be that the offense is simply more efficient and effective in its distribution, but not in the sense that it produces a higher volume of points. McMillan will be the key to figuring out which side the Pacers will be on of the two.
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The previously stated facts about McMillan’s prior offenses are all important, though the stat most pertinent to the situation is the one that Bird is referencing — points per game. In his ten full seasons as coach, McMillan’s teams have been all across the board in PPG, scoring 97.7, 92.1, 97.1, 98.9, 88.8, 94.1, 95.4, 99.4, 98.1, and 96.3 points a contest, respectively.
The NBA as a whole didn’t score as much back then, especially in his years in Seattle, but these numbers prove something that we all already knew: if you have fewer possessions in a game, you’re going to score less.
The Pacers finished 11th in pace last season, which was by far their highest finish in the Vogel era. The Pacers also finished 17th in PPG, which is somewhat telling of how efficient (or inefficient) the offense ran at the faster pace. More evidence? The Pacers offensive rating last year was ranked 25th in the league (per Basketball Reference). That’s the lowest finish in the Vogel era (though they placed 23rd in the seasons prior to last).
This somewhat makes sense, though. Hill-Ellis-George-Turner-Mahinmi weren’t necessarily the prototype “fast-paced” starting five you’d want. The bench looked even worse. If you want to play fast, you need guys that will run.
How did Bird do in terms of remedying that situation?
That depends on how you feel about Teague. Teague was the playmaker of an offense that finished eighth in pace, but only finished .6 PPG higher than the Pacers. Everyone else that was added this offseason aren’t even arguably contributing to a faster offense. Young played in the 19th fastest offense and Jefferson played in the 17th fastest offense.
This doesn’t mean that no player on the roster is adaptable to change, it just means that literally no player has recent experience playing in an offense even close to the top five in pace.
The Pacers have the point guard capable of getting things going, but with only two effective catch and shooters (Miles and George) on the roster, a ball-handling shooting guard who needs time to create a shot (Ellis), and a bench that isn’t even sure how to score, let alone score fast, the team doesn’t have the assets to create an offense with the speed of last year’s Warriors or Thunder.
Next: Slide 4 of 4: A Few Scenarios
Pushing this roster to a faster pace will likely be uncomfortable for the players and McMillan, though if it’s Bird wish to push the tempo up, it may be McMillan’s command. The odds of this being disastrous are probably more likely than the odds of this working out in the Pacers’ favor.
Given those factors, here are a few scenarios in which the Pacers can legitimately find those extra three points.
- The Pacers keep their tempo around the 10 spot in the league, but the combined gelling of new players and the emergence of George and Turner to new offensive heights push the team up a couple points to 104, maybe 105 a game, without much defensive consequence.
- The Pacers push their tempo to new heights, finishing the season top five in pace. At the same time, the defense falls apart as new additions that are already defensive liabilities can’t give maximum effort on both ends of the floor. The team scores 105 points or more a game, but suffers as a whole.
- The Pacers run the fastest offense in the league. A new superteam is formed in George, Turner, Teague and Ellis. The offense works like a machine and dishes out the highest PPG total in NBA history. The Pacers defeat the Warriors in the NBA Finals in four games. Usain Bolt loses an Olympic race, a pig flies out of Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the world ends.
Now, here are a few likely scenarios where they don’t reach 105 points.
- The Pacers, despite early season efforts to run a fast (or at least similarly to last season) paced offense, revert back to McMillan’s old ways and run one of the slowest offenses in the league. The team averages below 100 points, but still run a somewhat efficient offense and defense. They still likely contend in the eastern conference.
- The Pacers maintain their pace of last season, but with a new roster and new head coach stumble upon some growing pains offensively and defensively. They finish at about 101-102 points a game, similar to their output last season.
- McMillan’s “I’m a fast-paced coach now” plan goes horribly wrong, dooming the team offensively and defensively. The team lacks an identity, is unable to score over 105 points and Bird is left wondering if Vogel still has his number saved.
Bottom line: If the Pacers really want to score 105 points a game, they probably can, but with this roster it may come at a cost. The Pacers do not have to score 105 points a game to be efficient offensively, and they do not have to score 105 points a game to contend in the Eastern Conference.
The likeliest scenario that occurs this season is a mixture of the ones aforementioned. There will likely be some issues gelling the new offense, and McMillan likely won’t adjust his coaching style to an extreme for this type of roster. The Pacers will probably not reach 105 points, but that isn’t a bad thing.
Their offense is “generally better” and building upon its efficiency this season is much more important than reaching a point quota.
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Besides, regardless of where the Pacers end up scoring-wise at the end of the season, Bird will probably have some other weird philosophy or nonsensical quote for us to digest by June.