8p9s Roundtable: Concerns for the Indiana Pacers at the Halfway Point

Ben Gibson

Jan 13, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Monta Ellis (11) shoots the ball over Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas (4) during the first half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The Indiana Pacers have been making a habit of losing double-digit leads — and games — prompting plenty of questions about what exactly is wrong with the team.

Several patterns have emerged in the Pacers play, prompting several concerns as we near the midway point of the season. Gone are the blowouts and easy wins, and in their place are losing efforts and blown leads, and ultimately, more losses than Indiana should tolerate.

After starting with an 11-5 record, the Indiana Pacers have struggled since with an 11-14 stretch since December 1st and a 22-19 record on the season.

The Indiana Pacers let another game get away from them vs the Celtics last week. Is this a real problem or a growing pain for a team that was expected to struggle more this season?

Editor’s Note: The Pacers let it happen again on Sunday, this time against the Denver Nuggets.

Jared Wade: Real problem. Psychology is a funny thing. It probably wasn’t a real issue even after the first few collapses. Those things just do happen in the way that if you roll a die a thousand times then there will an instance of 4 coming up seven straight times. Math is weird. However, the Celtics game felt like a “here we go again” breakdown and you can tell it is now in their heads. The subsequent no-show against the Wizards, at home in front of Friday night crowd, seemed to reflect this crisis of confidence. They should get through it, but, yeah, it’s a thing.

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Will Furr: Yes. It is both. It’s a real problem, but it’s not a surprising problem given the amount of change this team has experienced. Frank Vogel has to figure out what guys he wants to close with, both with big and small lineups, then those guys have to get used to playing together when the heat is turned up. Execution, both on offense and defense, requires guys to be able to trust each other and know where everyone will be at any given time. The Pacers aren’t there yet.

Tim Donahue: As much as I would like to think it’s the sign of a team on the verge of breaking through, I believe the opposite. These wasted opportunities will hurt in any situation. When coupled with home losses to teams like Sacramento and Milwaukee, they’re a sign of a real problem.

Ryan Barth: It’s hard for a team to develop a closing mentality. Either you have it or you don’t, and the Pacers have shown time and again this season they are incapable of putting teams away. Frank Vogel recently laid out the reasons these games are slipping away, one game it was turnovers, another was missed free throws and on and on we go. The most troubling thing as a fan is watching this team play hard enough to get these leads late in games knowing it’s just a matter of time before they give it all back in a few minutes of panic and indecisiveness.

Jon Washburn: I think it’s both. It’s definitely a real problem. Including last night’s meltdown in Denver, the Pacers have given away no less than six games on the road this year in which they led late. They could be in the driver’s seat for the 2-seed, and yet here they are, fighting just to stay in the playoff race. Still, we’re talking about a team that lost a lot of leadership and continuity over the offseason. As good as Paul George is, he still missed all of last year and he’s never held this role on an NBA team. He’s 25. His team has struggled. It’s frustrating to be sure, but the entire scenario was probably for more likely than November made us believe.

Next: The Indiana Pacers' 3-point shooting struggles

Dec 31, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers fans and guard C.J. Miles (0) reacts after Miles made a three pointer against the Milwaukee Bucks at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Milwaukee defeats Indiana 120-116. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Pacers were 2nd in the league in 3-point shooting to start the year. they are now 12th. Can they get back in the top 10 or was the start of the season an anomaly?

Wade: Yes. It was definitely an anomaly to be second. Both Georges and C.J. were hitting from deep at an unsustainable level. But it’s swung a bit further than expected the other way now, with C.J., in particular, and Paul George hitting a slump. With Miles, it just looks like the injury messed up his rhythm some while PG’s issue seems to be shot selection. I expect both to improve post-All-Star and Indy to finish (just barely) in the top 10.

Furr: I believe they can get back into the top 10, but I don’t see them getting all the way back up to 2nd. Paul George and C.J. Miles were throwing fireballs to start the year, and both can be streaky. Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey are not going to prop up your three point shooting, and Chase Budinger has gone cold, so it all depends on PG and CJ.

Donahue: They can shoot better than they are now, but second in the league is probably an anomaly. The Pacers don’t really have any knockdown three-point shooters. Paul George, George Hill, and C.J. Miles are all above average, but it drops off quickly after that.

Barth: The shot clock is contributing quite a bit to the decline of the 3-point shooting performance. There have been several bad shots from behind the arc to avoid the shot clock violation. When the high screen comes at the top of the key with 3 or 4 seconds left it’s simply too late and awful shots get hoisted. Budinger, Miles and PG have all regressed significantly from long range the the last month and can’t seem to right the ship.

Washburn: I expect them to finish in the top 10, but I think 2nd was a bit of a pipe dream. CJ Miles, rather than imitating Will Ferrell in Old School, will eventually start streaking in the good way again. George Hill and Paul George are very good outside shooters. And the Monta Ellis/Rodney Stuckey duo can still be expected to make one or two a game (between them).

Next: Any fear of missing the playoffs?

Jan 6, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) defends Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) during the second half at Amway Center. Indiana defeated Orlando 95-86. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Eastern Conference has been more competitive than expected with Indiana currently sitting in 6th. Any fear of them missing the playoffs?

Wade: No. Aside from the Cavs (on the good end) and the Sixers, Nets, and Bucks (on the bad end), there really isn’t a ton of difference between the rest of the conference. So it is definitely possible, and these late-game collapses paired with a few bad late calls might could end up being the difference. But I still think they have enough good, cohesive talent and their point differential (fourth best in the East) still suggests they’re in the upper level of this parity cluster.

Furr: It’s certainly possible the Pacers could miss the playoffs, but I don’t think they will. I’ve pegged them somewhere in the 4-6 range all along, and I think that is still reasonable.

Donahue: I was asked this before Friday night’s game, and I said, “No.” Getting run out of their own gym by the (currently) 10th place team in the East has left me considerably less sanguine. My biggest worry is that opponents have figured this team out, and the Pacers don’t have a counter. They have basically lived on hitting shots, and that’s not going to be good enough as other teams get it together.

Barth: No reason this team should miss the playoffs if they stay healthy. The East is a lot better this year, but so are the Pacers. The last several games, which could have easily been won, will haunt this team down the road though. They should be a top 5 team in the East, but most likely will have to settle for the 6-8th seed.

Washburn: The Pacers could definitely miss the playoffs. They’ve had pretty good injury luck so far this year all things considered. Indiana is still a very young team that’s struggling to find itself, and one major injury could really throw a monkey wrench into the season. But I believe in Frank Vogel, and the Pacers finish the season with nine or ten very winnable games over the last thirteen (shout out to Hardwood Paroxysm for that observation). Optimistically, I think they could finish third. Realistically, they seem like more of a four to seven seed.

Next: Paul George's Season So Far

Jan 15, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) dribbles the ball while guarded by Washington Wizards guard Ramon Sessions (7) in the second half of the game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Washington Wizards beat the Indiana Pacers 118-104. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

A year after missing 76 games, Paul George will be an All-Star. Are you surprised or did you expect him to bounce back like this?

Wade: No. This is about what expected on the balance, although I didn’t think his first 40-ish games would half him being the second-best player in the NBA half the time then legit mediocre (to bad) for most of the other games. I figured it would be a more level path to his same sterling season-long averages. So it has happened oddly, but he’s back to a definitive top 20 guy and that was well within expectations. As is him starting to look fatigued and sloppy half-way through the year.

Furr: I expected him to bounce back. Despite the horrific nature of his injury, broken bones typically heal better than any sort of ligament damage, and there was no doubt that Paul George would put in the work necessary to be his old self.

Donahue: His performance in November was surprising, but coming back to earth hasn’t been. Taken as a whole, I think his season has been about what I’d expected.

Barth: His explosion this season came out of nowhere for me. We all knew he was an All-Star caliber player, but he carried this team in November the way James Harden, Russell Westbrook or even Lebron James tend to do for long stretches of the season. There was a time when he was #2 to Steph Curry in the way-to-early MVP voting. Problem is, that was almost 2 months ago and he’s come back down to Earth quickly.

Washburn: I never expected him to bounce back and play the way he did in November. That was a version of Paul George that we have never seen before. His play over the last month, though, better matches what I expected. He’s still a great defensive player and has a smoothness to his game that just makes him fun to watch. But his offensive decision making and streaky shooting are still keeping him from being one of the league’s very best players. The potential for “elite-ness” is still there, but he needs to be able to do it on a night to night basis.

Next: Midseason MVP

Jan 15, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Monta Ellis (11) holds the ball while Washington Wizards guard Ramon Sessions (7) defends in the second half of the game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Washington Wizards beat the Indiana Pacers 118-104. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Outside of Paul George, who is your midseason MVP?

Wade: Monta Ellis. The scoring is below what I expected and he has definitely had some awful shooting nights. But his approach and general contributions, in terms of regularly doing what he does, have been consistent on a team that has not been able to find that trait elsewhere very often. George Hill has drifted back towards passivity of late and C.J. Miles fell of a cliff with his shooting. Ian Mahinmi has been the other rock, but, yeah, he aint quite there on Monta or the other guys’ level, even if he is doing his job really, really well.

Furr: Monta Ellis. He’s been fantastic for this team, more so than I expected, and in more ways than I expected. He’s distributing the ball at a level I didn’t know he was capable of, and he’s taking a leadership role on a team that needs all the leadership it can get. The most consistently reliable Pacer has been Ian Mahinmi. He has been greatly improved over past seasons – a positive contributor at both ends of the floor.

Monta Ellis. He’s been fantastic for this team, more so than I expected, and in more ways than I expected. — Will Furr

Donahue: The most consistently reliable Pacer has been Ian Mahinmi. He has been greatly improved over past seasons – a positive contributor at both ends of the floor.Ian Mahinmi. He never takes a night off and has even improved his interior defense and horrid free throw shooting. A steady backup rarely cracks the starting lineup this late in his career, but Ian has embraced the role and thrived.

Barth: Ian Mahinmi. He never takes a night off and has even improved his interior defense and horrid free throw shooting. A steady backup rarely cracks the starting lineup this late in his career, but Ian has embraced the role and thrived.Ian

Washburn: Ian Mahimni has been better than anyone could have expected. He may not protect the rim as well as Roy Hibbert did (although he’s close), but on the whole, I think he’s a better defensive player. He’s much better suited to coral guys on the perimeter in pick and roll situations, and his general “bounciness” has been very disruptive. While he may not have the same specific skill set offensively, his offensive game is a better match for Indiana as well. He doesn’t need four or five fruitless post ups just to stay happy, and after his early season free throw adventures, he’s been a reliable option for the Pacers on his dives to the basket.

Next: Who has been the biggest surprise for you?

Jan 4, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Indiana Pacers center Jordan Hill (27) is pressured by Miami Heat forward Amar

Who has been the biggest surprise for you?

Wade: Jordan Hill. He isn’t the best — but he isn’t the worst. That’s enough considering what I thought he would contribute and he has been a big factor in a lot of wins. I don’t think he’s a long-term roster solution, but particularly with Myles Turner missing so much time, he has been a nice one-year rental to bridge the gap between the Smashmouth transition to … whatever this will eventually be.