The Indiana Pacers are coming off a successful 11-2 November and have turned themselves into one of the best teams in the NBA. Keeping that going in December will be a harder task.
After being considered a fringe playoff team when the season began, the Indiana Pacers have worked their way into 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Their success has been fueled by the resurgence of Paul George as well as the rest of the team finally starting to figure out their roles after an 0-3 start.
The 8 Points, 9 Seconds staff gathers to look at what was, what can be, and the month ahead to try to determine if the Pacers will prove they belong in the conversation or will get revealed of pretenders as a tough schedule lies ahead.
The Pacers faced Roy Hibbert for the first time since the trade. Any feelings about seeing Roy in a Lakers uniform?
Ryan Barth: I’m sure we’ll see Roy in another uniform next year coming off the bench, so it is hard to get too sentimental here. Roy’s exit was ugly and Larry Bird must feel vindicated after seeing Jordan Hill and Ian Mahinmi easily replace his minutes in the rotation. I’ll always remember the good times, but you just can’t shake the bad ones either knowing how much promise Roy had a few years ago. It’s just a shame he apparently can’t catch any Pacer games on TV, because he’d see firsthand how a winning team functions every night as opposed to his current situation in LA.
Dylan Hughes: *smiley face emoji*
Will Furr: Nah. Roy’s time had run its course in Indiana. I harbor no ill will towards him either, despite a lackluster (at times) last season or two. He was never gonna be the guy we see in the playoffs against Miami, and I think a lot of fans held that against him. I did get a little salty about his huge two handed dunk though, in a “where the hell was that the past 5 years” sense. I actually laughed when he fell on the ball and called timeout. Classic Roy Hibbert hustle play.
Jon Washburn: Is it too offensive to simply say, “Nope” and move on? I didn’t dislike Roy as much as most. He stuffed Carmelo. He was a great foil to LeBron. He even loved Indiana, creating Area 55, appearing on Parks and Rec many times, and relishing the role of “Franchise Guy” for a team looking for an identity. But it was time for him to leave. No hard feelings. I wish him the best, though it looks like the NBA is changing away from him.
Ben Gibson: Personally, I miss him. Maybe it’s cause my first post on here was on him, but for me it isn’t so much about what he is now, but what he did for the Pacers. Sure, things had ran their course, but he played a big role in the Pacers success Post-Brawl. He’s not perfect, and it was the right move to let him go, but that doesn’t mean won’t appreciate him and what he did for the Pacers.
Next: Frank Vogel, Coach of the Year?
Frank Vogel has adapted this roster into a winning team despite all the personnel changes. Does he have a shot at coach of the year?
Barth: Absolutely — he has tackled a lot in the early going (Myles Turner’s minutes/injury, the lack of a true Power Forward causing controversy with his start player, an 0-3 start) and turned this team around quickly. There’s no reason the Pacers couldn’t have won against the Bulls and Cavs which would have made this team the talk of the league by winning the last 13 games in a row. Although it’s hard to argue Luke Walton isn’t the front-runner, but he’ll be replaced by Kerr before too long.
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Hughes: Absolutely. Vogel has gotten a lot of credit for what he’s done over the years, but I think he’s really shown this season that he can adapt to a major personnel change and make it work. Not only has he utilized the players in a way for the offensive output to be much higher, but the defense is just about where it was with West and Hibbert. They play differently (more steals, disrupting passing lanes, etc.), but it still works. Even better, perhaps, as those steals are becoming fast breaks and turning into points on the other end.
Furr: If the Pacers keep burning down nets everywhere they play? Absolutely. If the offense and defense both wind up middle of the pack, with some regression to the mean, I would still say maybe. If this team breaks 44 wins, you’ve gotta consider him.
Washburn: Currently, I’d say he has more than a shot. He deserves to be the odds on favorite if the season ended today. Not only has the team both improved on the fly WHILE changing its style and roster, but many of the individual players have improved their game as well. I think the entire organization, from Larry Bird and the scouts all the way down to the player development guys deserve a lot of credit.
Gibson: I don’t see how you can’t give him consideration. The Pacers had to revamp their roster and their style of play on both sides of the ball, and they might be better than ever now. It’s early, of course, but how many coaches really have to overhaul their roster, and their style of play, and are still successful? I can’t imagine there are many who have. If the Pacers finish in the top 4 in the East, I think he’s got a real shot at it because people like a good story, and they’ll be legitimately good. It won’t just be sympathy votes for a coach surprising everyone.
Next: What Are Your Expectations for This Team Going Forward
After 11-2 in November, how have your expectations for this team going forward?
Barth: Top 5 team in the East. They deserve to be right up there with the Bulls and Heat. They’ve beaten both of those teams already and should be well-positioned after this upcoming Western Conference road trip. Expect them to continue their climb in the East if the team continues to jell, gain more confidence and can stay relatively healthy.
Hughes: I never agreed with the people saying they would miss out on the playoffs, but this? Never even imagined it. Frankly, I didn’t know what to expect at all. This, this definitely never even crossed my mind. I credit their success thus far to the new pieces gelling quickly, Paul George, and the defense being good. All major questions coming into the season, all of which have been answered.
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Furr: I thought these guys would have around 44 wins in em coming into the year; I still think that’s a reasonable number, though they’re on pace for closer to 50 right now. I’m (so far) not letting a hot stretch completely alter my expectation for these guys. It’s getting close though.
Washburn: I thought the team was better than it showed during it’s 0-3 start, and the realistic side of me tells me that the team is probably a little worse than 11-2. But boy, if Paul George is really this “I’m probably the 4th best player in the entire league” monster going forward, then I will have to radically alter my expectations. Give me another month to know for sure.
Gibson: Rational and sane minds didn’t expect them to be great, but they are just that right now. I think finishing in the top half of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket, and at minimum a run into the second round. This team was expected to barely break .500, so maybe we are just being greedy, but so far they’ve forced us to have higher expectations for them.
Next: What Will be the Pacers Record at the End of the Month?
With a much more difficult December schedule ahead, how many games are the Pacers above or below .500 at month’s end. They are currently 11-5.
Barth: I can see them at 20-12 after December playing just above .500 for the month. Nobody wants to play the league’s best team (Warriors) or take on the league’s best defense (Spurs), but with the way this team is humming I’d expect them to pull out an upset or two before the year is out. The games that scare me the most actually are Toronto and Atlanta since they have always been matchup nightmares for us in the past.
Hughes: I have them losing to the Clippers, Warriors and Spurs. They could win every game, really, and I wouldn’t be surprised. So 13-3 in the month (if that happens, sheesh…) that would make them 16 games above .500.
Furr: I believe the Pacers can go 8-8 in that stretch, and stay 6 over .500. That is a brutal month though. We will get to see whether the November Pacers were real or not very quickly.
Washburn: I think the Pacers will be 19-13 by the end of December, finishing up right at .500 for the entire month. Portland, Brooklyn, Sacramento, and Minnesota can PROBABLY be counted as wins. Golden State and San Antonio can PROBABLY be counted as losses. There really are a lot of games that will depend upon how well the team plays. In truth, though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pacers win or lose to any of these teams besides perhaps Brooklyn.
Gibson: I think they’ll be at least .500 on the month, but the Pacers falling back to Earth won’t say much about them beyond a tough schedule this month. If they fall below .500 on the month, much less the season, it might be time to recalibrate expectations. They’re going to drop a few, but how many and in what fashion will determine whether it is time hit the panic button again or not. I think they’ll be 5 or 6 above the .500 mark.
Next: How Can the Pacers beat the Warriors
What has to happen for the Indiana Pacers to beat the Golden State Warriors back in Indiana?
Barth: Curry has to go cold for at least a few quarters and C.J. Miles will need to shoot very well from long range to complement PG, ala his performance against the Wizards. Curry is playing out of his mind right now and the numbers suggest he’ll come back down to earth eventually right? This should be the game a lot of NBA analysts circle on their calendars as a possible L for Golden State, because it’s a long trip from San Fran to Indy and their point differentials are shrinking a bit. Here’s hoping the East Coast Splash Brothers can make some noise.
Hughes: Play their game. They match up really well, an obvious goal of Larry’s. If they hit shots like they did against Washington, something they might have to do to beat Golden State, they’ll win. To beat the Warriors, though, everything has to go right.
Behind the Buck Pass
Furr: They’ll need a lot of things to break in their favor. PG13 and C.J. Miles need to have another hot shooting night. Ian has to be able to at least stay in the vicinity of Draymond Green. But, by far the biggest thing, George Hill (and probably Paul George for stretches) need to not get killed by Stephen Curry. He’s gonna get points, but Hill and George are both premier perimeter defenders – they need to show that. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vogel made sure one of them was on the floor whenever Steph was, even if normal rotations dictated otherwise.
Washburn: Paul George has to be PAUL GEORGE. George Hill has to knock down every corner three and probably tomahawk one or two fast break dunks. CJ Miles needs to hit at least five threes. Mahinmi needs to stay on the floor and continue to catch the ball around the rim and finish. Either Ellis, Stuckey, Budinger, or any combination of the three needs to get into the high teens. And even then, it still might be enough. Unless Vogel unveils to the world the defensive key to a Curry pick and roll, it’s likely that the Warriors will have to play poorly to lose.
Gibson: Like the responses above, it will be a mix of a cold night from Golden State and a 5-man effort from the Pacers. I think there are certain things they can do to push things in their favor, such as playing the disciplined defense we’ve seen from them in November, and continuing to keep their high pace offense going. But the biggest thing would be getting big nights out of not only C.J. Miles and Paul George, but Monta Ellis and George Hill as well. As good as the offense has been, we haven’t seen all of them hitting their strides at the same time. Part of this is due to injury and still sorting themselves out, but to defeat the defending champs, they’ll need the starters and the bench to play their best game of the year unless the Warriors just roll over.