The Indiana Pacers agreed to terms with Monta Ellis on Thursday afternoon for $44 million over four years. Indiana’s offense can certainly use his ability to score 19.3 points per a game but there are still question on how he’ll fit in defensively. The 8 Points, 9 Seconds staff looks to answer a few questions about Indiana’s newest guard.
Next: A Good Signing?
Was signing Monta Ellis for $44 million a good move?
Tim Donahue: The money is fine — pretty decent in the context of the future cap figures — and Monta brings some things the Pacers could use. It’s a year too long, though, and the fourth year being Monta’s option is less than ideal.
I think Ellis is a superior player to Rodney Stuckey, but if the Pacers could have signed Stuckey and another rotation player with the same money, I would have preferred that strategy.
Jon Washburn: When you consider the size of the contracts that are currently being handed out, I don’t think that $44 million is an overpay. Two years from now, Monta will be making about 12% of the cap, which is pretty unbelievable when you think about it. With that said, I probably would have preferred to spend the $13 million in cap space on two $6.5 million guys instead. I think Ellis is a superior player to Rodney Stuckey, but if the Pacers could have signed Stuckey and another rotation player with the same money, I would have preferred that strategy.
Will Furr: Absolutely. The team will miss David West, his leadership, and his ability to get baskets in the midrange, but from a purely talent based standpoint, Ellis is a better use of $11 million than West is of $12.6 million. It does eat all the available cap room this year, and who knows what Larry Bird and Kevin Pritchard are going to do at the 4 spot, but after this year, $11 million will represent less than 15%-20% of the cap. He will be a useful player on a manageable contract with a talent the Pacers personnel currently didn’t have.
Ryan Barth: Given what was left after 30 players signed on day one of free agency, it feels like a great move. Then you pair it with the Kings apparent offer of $48 million and it quells the recent assumption of the team turning players off because of the way they treated Roy Hibbert this offseason.
Scott Stewart: As far as money goes, it’s not a bad deal by any means. Monta brings more creativity to Indiana on the offensive end, and if he can contribute as a team player, then Indiana won’t rue another money move. The fact that he turned down the Kings offer of $4 million more ($1 million per year) helps to show that talented players aren’t ignoring the Pacers — or their money.
Next: Monta: Starter or 6th Man?
Should Monta Ellis start?
Donahue: I don’t reallyhave an opinion on it. I think it would make sense to give Monta plenty of time with the bench, but I don’t think that necessarily means 6th man. I would need to see the finished roster and probably see them play, before deciding.
He’s suited perfectly to be a gunslinging 6th man. Put him with guys like Solo and Damo and Ian/Myles Turner and he can be the focal point, the creator.
Washburn: Ellis should start because he will probably be, from day one, the Pacers best scorer. Depending on who starts at the 4, spacing could get a little cramped with Monta, but his creating abilities should make both George Hill and Paul George better — allowing Hill to play off the ball more and taking the ball out of George’s hands for the three or four pick-and-rolls each game that he inevitably tries to split to no avail.
Furr: I do not think Monta should start. He’s suited perfectly to be a gunslinging 6th man. Put him with guys like Solo and Damo and Ian/Myles Turner and he can be the focal point, the creator. I believe that he was born for that role. He can use his considerable talents to create on the offensive end without worrying about touches, and when the defense collapses on him, he can get guys open shots. Damo might not shoot anything but corner 3s with Ellis playing.
Barth: I don’t see Monta Ellis in a Stuckey role, but rather the go-to scorer for this starting 5. PG will take that role back eventually, but until he’s back to his old form they need someone besides George Hill to go nuts on offense.
Stewart: Yes, Monta Ellis should start. For the amount the Pacers are paying him along with his scoring ability Vogel should have him in right away. It will take some time for him to get adjusted but it helped that he came almost straight away, and if he can find a way to fit in then Indiana now has a little more flash for the right amount of cash.
Next: Small Ball?
Will Frank Vogel actually start all of George Hill, Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, and Paul George?
Donahue: I do not think so. “Larry really brought it up, and it’s something Larry would like to see,” said Frank Vogel when asked about where the idea of Paul George playing the 4 arose. He added: “That’s something I think will improve us on the offensive end. It’s not something I envision doing full time. Maybe as part of your bench rotation, be small that way, but we’ll see, like I said, what the roster looks like.”
Vogel is probably too stubborn to actually start these four players together. However, I could see those four finishing games with either Hibbert or Mahinmi.
Washburn: While there is a rather large part of me that would like to see this, Vogel is probably too stubborn to actually start these four players together. For one thing, this group probably isn’t “long enough” for Vogel’s liking. However, I could see those four finishing games with either Hibbert or Mahinmi and looking really awesome at random times throughout the season.
Furr: I would be very surprised. Vogel has been burned by bad benches, and saw a bit last year what having a creator coming off the bench can do for the team. This might be possible in the future, but I believe we see Hill/Miles/PG/cheap PF/Hibbert starting each game.
Barth: Golden State proved that you can’t have enough shooters on the floor (especially perimeter shooters). Just let Monta take all of Solo’s shots from last year and we’re good. That’ll open up lanes for Solo, too, which is where his game truly fits anyway.
Stewart: I’m unsure on this one. It would certainly make Indiana both smaller and faster, but I’m not sure Vogel would ever approve of starting three guards and Paul George alongside Hibbert/Mahinmi. There’s a possibility that Indiana could go to this lineup as a way to switch things up at different points in the game, but this group would have to prove their consistency if they were to start more games than not.
Next: How Many Points Will Monta Average?
How many points per game will Monta Ellis average in 2015-16?
Donahue: Monta’s been at or around 19 a night the last three seasons. That seems reasonable, if perhaps a little high.
Washburn: Ellis will average 19 points per game on 44% shooting in about 35 minutes per night. The Pacers +\- with him will be slightly positive, and the offense will benefit with his shot creation, even though his efficiency will be low enough to hijack at least four MillerTimePodcasts next season.
Monta’s been at or around 19 a night the last three seasons. That seems reasonable, if perhaps a little high.
Furr: I’m going to go with 16. He’ll have some 30-point outbursts, some 5-point duds, and a bunch of inefficient (but not necessarily bad) 5-of-13 shooting games at around 10-15 points. Monta may not shoot well this year, but he should have a green light coming off the bench, and his shot creation will likely be needed. If he gets to the line and dishes some assists, that inefficient scoring can certainly be overlooked.
Barth: 15 PPG. I’d really like to see him facilitate more and run the offense since its always been mud-like during Vogel’s tenure. He seems like he could really open things up for George Hill and get him (dare I say it) his first All-Star season.
Stewart: He hasn’t reached 20 points per game since his final year with Golden State in 2012, and I don’t expect him to get to that again. If he works in the lineup, he’ll probably average anywhere between 16.5 to 18 points a game. But, if he ends up as more of a sixth man and doesn’t play as many minutes as expected then that number could lower.
Next: Have It All?
Does Monta Ellis have it all?
Donahue: Sure. Let’s go with it.
Washburn: Umm, I actually think that as a pure scorer, he’s every bit as good as Dwyane Wade. However, when you factor in the passing, defense, intangibles, and unselfishness, it’s clear that Wade has a lot more “all” than Monta Ellis.
Furr: Monta has a lot of offensive skill. He definitely doesn’t possess Wade’s old-man post game, and it will take years of practice for him to accomplish Wade’s skill in flopping and complaining to officials. However, if he focuses, he could get there. Where Ellis really seems to lack “it all” is on defense. He’s never had a defensive rating of less than 105, which isn’t atrocious — but it’s certainly not good, and will drive Frank Vogel nuts.
Why do I see visions of Wade obliterating Monta over and over again in a crucial second-round series against Miami and then dropping the mic after a 4-1 series win?
Barth: Why do I see visions of Wade obliterating Monta over and over again in a crucial second-round series against Miami and then dropping the mic after a 4-1 series win? Monta just need some jewelry and Monta gon’ be alright.
Stewart: Monta maybe doesn’t have it “all,” and he certainly doesn’t have what Dwyane Wade has in terms of all-around play or “rings,” as he puts it. However, Monta can provide another solid scoring option for Indiana either in the starting lineup or off the bench and can hopefully help Indiana push for the ring he craves.
Next: Would the Mavericks Trade for Roy Hibbert?
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