True or False: The Indiana Pacers are a lock for the postseason?
Tim Donahue: False. No question, they’ve come a long way, but only two games separate their current 7th seed from the 10th seed. Winning nine games in 10 since All-Star break certainly makes the Pacers’ chances look good, but a magic number of 17 with 18 games left does not make for a lock. It doesn’t help that Boston has won 8 of 13 since the break, and Charlotte 7 of 12. The bar for the 8h seed is slowly creeping higher.
Ben Gibson: Yes. The East is that terrible. At this point Indiana just has to play .500 basketball to keep in the playoffs. It would take both a Pacers fall and a combination of Miami, Boston, and Detroit getting their houses in order to muscle them out. The streak will eventually end, but it has them in great position right now.
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Jon Washburn: True. I’m not even going to couch this argument in any measured sort of way. The Pacers are playing great basketball right now, and they have the look of a playoff team. Their defense has returned to good — and sometimes great — levels. Stuckey is perhaps the greatest minimum-contract guy in the past five years. Vogel is a top-six coach in the league. And Larry Legend still exists.
Jalen Bishop: True. It’s a lock. The Miami Heat aren’t punching their way back in without Chris Bosh. Boston and Brooklyn have not put together winning stretch like Indiana has this season to make believe they can bump the Pacers out. It’s not happening for Charlotte, and Indy will fight for the 7th and 8th seeds.
Whitney Medworth: True. We are now to the point where I would be shocked if the Pacers didn’t reach the playoffs. I can’t give enough credit to Frank Vogel, the coaching staff, and this team for their ability to overcome the odds. They could have quit when Paul George got injured in August. They could have quit when they lost eight in a row in December. But they never let that be their story, and now they’re on the verge of making noise in the postseason.
Next: What Seed Will the Pacers Get?
Fill in the Blank: The Indiana Pacers will finish the season in ___ place in the East?
Donahue: 7th. They’re not a lock, but they’re playing better basketball than most of their competitors right now. The schedule turns tougher — games at Chicago and Cleveland, home games left against Houston, Dallas, and Oklahoma City — so it’s unlikely they’ll continue to win 90% of their outings. They’re probably a little too far back to catch Milwaukee, but should win enough to stay ahead of the Hornet/Heat/Celtic struggle for the 8th seed.
Gibson: 6th. I do think it is entirely possible for them to jump Milwaukee and get the 6th seed. Milwaukee doesn’t have a lot of easy games left and the Pacers seem to have a more favorable schedule down the stretch. The Pacers just need to play decently to cover the four-game gap.
Washburn: 6th. Have you seen Milwaukee’s upcoming schedule? Brutal. They might go 1-9 over their next 10 games. Indiana’s schedule gets tougher, too, and I could see Charlotte (which has the easiest remaining schedule of the entire group by far) hopping over both Indiana and Milwaukee if Al Jefferson’s injury isn’t too bad, but if I was a betting man, I would wager that Indiana gets to six.
Bishop: 7th. I can’t see them bumping up another spot due to a tough second half of March and the possibility of Paul George returning, which could take time to gel. Things get a little hairy through the next week with Toronto, Chicago, Cleveland, and Houston on schedule.
Medworth: I’m not afraid to say it: The Pacers are finishing 6th. Not only are the Pacers on some sort of fire right now, the remaining schedule for the Bucks, who currently hold the 6 spot, is brutal. David West and Co. will not let this team fall back into another November-like despair.
Next: Beating the Hawks or Cavs?
True or False: The Indiana Pacers have some chance to beat either the Hawks Cavaliers in a playoff series?
Donahue: True, but probably only in the most technical sense of the word. Indiana is playing well, but has also benefited from a kind schedule and some timely opponent injuries. My sense is that Atlanta is not only more talented but remain a very tough stylistic matchup for the Pacers. Cleveland is probably more vulnerable, but LeBron can still win a series on his own. This changes some if (a) Paul George returns, (b) is effective, and (c) doesn’t disrupt the current flow too much.
Gibson: False. The Hawks … maybe, but doubtful. Atlanta will try to stretch out the Pacers like they usually do, and that has spelled trouble for Indiana in the past. There is no chance to beat Cleveland without a 100%-ready Paul George — something I don’t think we’ll see this year. If by “some chance” you mean eaten by bears, then sure, Indiana has a chance.
Washburn: True. Though I don’t see Indiana beating either team — both Atlanta and Cleveland are amazing — the Pacers could absolutely give the Hawks a hard time in a playoff series and possibly even force a game seven. Unfortunately, I don’t see any possibility for an Indiana/Atlanta matchup since I doubt the Pacers finish in 8th place.
Bishop: Very slim chances. The Pacers don’t have the offensive weaponry to go basket for basket with LeBron James and Cleveland or the trio of Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Al Horford. To win, they would need injury luck and Paul George at his per game numbers of 20-5-5 to win. They wouldn’t win a series against either, but it would make fun basketball.
Medworth: False. While, I think they could take it to six games and make it interesting, I don’t see the Pacers winning a seven-game series against those teams. All of this discussion remains in the “maybe” territory because we don’t know when or what Paul George will be able to contribute. Assuming he’s not 100% until next year, the Pacers would not be able knock off one of these teams.
Next: Beating the Raptors, Bulls or Wiz?
True or False: The Indiana Pacers have some chance to beat the Raptors, Bulls, or Wizards in a playoff series?
Donahue: True. The Pacers haven’t seen the Raptors or the Wizards during their resurgence, so it’s almost a clean slate with these two teams. Both are struggling, and we’ll get a gauge of Toronto on Monday. The Bulls will be tough, but the Pacers have won two of three (including one in Chicago with the Bulls at full strength). The Pacers would really like to get to the 6th seed, where they would have a puncher’s chance against any of those teams.
Gibson: True. Between injuries and lackluster play as of late, the Pacers can take any of those teams down. None of those series will be easy in any way, but it is certainly possible if the Pacers play at a level like they are playing now.
Washburn: Absolutely true. This might sound crazy, but I think the Pacers would be favored against the Wizards and, depending upon injuries, could be favored over Chicago as well. The Raptors’ bigs have always given Hibbert problems, but their lack of experience and occasional inconsistency is less than terrifying.
Bishop: Better chances with these three teams than the Hawks and Cavs. The Raptors and Wizards have fell off from their hot starts to the season, so Indiana could catch them at a bad break when April comes. The Bulls are beatable due to injuries and the Pacers playing them well. The Raptors and Wiz will undoubtedly have the best players in the series if Indiana matches up with either.
Medworth: True. I absolutely think the Pacers can steal a series against one of these teams. If they meet up with one of these three in the playoffs, it likely means the Pacers grabbed the 6th seed. If the Pacers grabbed the 6th seed, it means Rodney is still in Godney mode and the Pacers have just won a whole lot of games to end the season. In the words of Rolando Blackman, “Confidence, baby.”
Next: What Is the Best Matchup?
Fill in the Blank: The best matchup in the playoffs for the Indiana Pacers is the ___?
Donahue: It’s really hard to tell, because the George Hill-led Pacers haven’t faced either Toronto or Washington. Based on the performance of the teams over the last few weeks, those would be the ones Indiana fans might want. However, matchups are a big factor in the NBA, and you don’t really know how that will play out until you see it on the floor. It’s a pretty simple equation for Frank Vogel and his charges right now: Keep winning and let the matchups sort themselves out.
Gibson: The Raptors and Wizards aren’t playing at a level that strikes fear into any team right now, and neither team is set up to take advantage of the Pacers. If it comes down to a grit n’ grind game, I’ll take the Pacers over either in a seven-game series.
Washburn: Chicago. They just aren’t a scary team. Sure, they always play hard, and their defense is still elite. But Tom Thibodeau wears them down every season, and despite all their new offensive talents, they struggle to score. I still don’t completely trust Indiana’s “new and improved” offense, and come playoff time, the scoring difficulties will most likely come back. They would be better off playing an opponent that will also struggle to get to 90, and then trust Rodney Stuckey and Mr. West late.
Bishop: Chicago Bulls. Indiana is 2-1 against the Bulls this season, and they can definitely out-ugly them for seven games. Every night would be an ugly shooting fest that would finish in the 80- to 90-point range. If the series happens, Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler would theoretically be rusty from their recent return from injury, and the Pacers would luck out with their defense closing off their shots. The Pacers are capable of guarding all of the Bulls’ wings and the Pau Gasol/Joakim Noah combo would have do extra on offense.
Medworth: Actually, my answer to this question is any team that does not include LeBron James or the 2015 January Eastern Conference Player of the Month, which just so happened to include the entire starting five of the Atlanta Hawks. The best playoff matchup for the Pacers is to avoid these two teams. This current Pacers team has plenty of playoff experience, they’ve been through a great deal of adversity the past 12 months, and in a still-fairly-weak Eastern Conference, they can beat a 3-, 4-, or 5-seed team.
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