After a loss last night to the Toronto Raptors, the Indiana Pacers have now lost eight of their last nine games. A win this weekend over the Orlando Magic offered some hope, but now we’re back to feeling like the Pacers might never win another game.
Amid such melancholy, it may seem crazy to even talk about the playoffs.
Still, whether or not Indiana will make a push for the 8th seed remains the biggest question of the season.
For the latest views on this and all the other issues surrounding where the Pacers stand, we gathered the 8 Points, 9 Seconds panel of experts for another roundtable Q&A.
Next: Can Indiana Beat Good Teams?
Fact or Fiction: The Indiana Pacers will get at least one more win this year vs the Hawks, Wizards, Bulls, Raptors or Cavs?
Tim Donahue: Fact — but it’s probably more of a law of averages thing than any indication that the Pacers are closing ground on those teams. They’re done with the Hawks, this year, so there are eight games left against the others, and five of those contests in the Fieldhouse. They should be able to steal one, perhaps two of those.
Whitney Medworth: Fact. I think they can steal one of those games given they have a healthy roster that includes George Hill — and said George Hill is playing more than 20 minutes a night. The Pacers get the Bulls at home on the second night of a back to back in March. They also get the Wizards and Raptors at home. I can’t see them winning against Cleveland though.
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Justin Ochoa: Fact. This Pacers team may not have the record to show for it, but they’re a tough bunch. They compete hard, and it wouldn’t be unthinkable for one of these teams to come into Bankers Life Fieldhouse and slack off because it’s late in the season and they’re playing the Pacers. That’d be a mistake. I could see the March 6 Chicago Bulls game as a potential win. Indiana will want to beat their Midwest rivals in front of a home crowd, and who knows, the Bulls might still be struggling at that point. I guarantee they will beat one of these teams.
Ryan Barth: Fact. Five out of these eight games are at home. I’ll give you Toronto, but I could easily see a W against the Wizards (which they played close in DC with no David West or George Hill) or the Bulls (which they already beat in Chicago and have injury issues of their own lately). You’d have to think that two sold-out home games vs. the Cavs in February would spark the team enough for at least one win.
Chuck Summers: Fiction. I don’t have a store of statistical insights for you, just the fact that these teams are thoroughly superior to the Pacers. For as much as the Pacers have hung around with some stronger teams, they have only a 1-9 record against these five. It’s the NBA, so any team can catch another one on an off night, but the top of the East will have plenty to play for in the second half of the season.
Next: PLAYOFFS?? PLAAAAYOFFFS?!?!?!?
Fact or Fiction: The Indiana Pacers can still make the playoffs?
Donahue: Technically fact — but gravitating towards fiction. Right now, the 7th and 8th seeds in the East are Miami and Charlotte, respectively. They are on track to win 35 to 36 games, and both teams seem like 35-to-40 win teams based on performance. Indiana would have to win between 20 and 24 of their final 35 games to land in that range. Winning 75% of their remaining 20 home games (15) and about one third of their remaining 14 road games (5) would put them at 36 wins. That’s not asking for miracles, but it is asking them to play better and be healthy. The 15 wins at home is probably the taller order than the 5 on the road. Hollinger’s playoff odds has them at about 16% (1 in 6) this morning, and that’s probably reasonable.
Medworth: Fact. That’s my technical answer. They’re only four games back from the 8th seed, and the teams ahead of them are Charlotte, Brooklyn, Boston, and Detroit. So yes, they can make the playoffs. Will they? I’m not so sure. The team is going to have to get healthy and stay healthy so they can get into some kind of rhythm.
Although I think it may hurt the Pacers more to make the postseason than to miss it, I think they do have a shot.
Ochoa: Fact. Making the playoffs is not out of the question. Although I think it may hurt the Pacers more to make the postseason than to miss it, I think they do have a shot. Two of the teams ahead of them in the standings just lost key players (Kemba Walker and Brandon Jennings), so I’d expect them drop some games that they normally wouldn’t. The Pacers are only three games out from being the 8 seed, with Detroit, Brooklyn, Boston and Charlotte ahead of them. If the Pacers did make the playoffs, they’d get swept by Atlanta and Kyle Korver would do a 360 windmill.
Barth: Fact. You’re never out of it in the East. Charlotte is likely to take a tumble after the big loss of Kemba Walker for six weeks, and Dwyane Wade’s hamstring issues would suggest the Heat could fall as well. The playoffs are only a reality if Vogel can get some consistency with a starting five of George Hill, Rodney Stuckey, Solomon Hill, David West and Roy Hibbert.
Summers: Fact. This is the Eastern Conference, where all dreams are possible — assuming your dream is sneaking into the playoffs with a sub-500 record and getting summarily ousted while a handful of people watch the train wreck on NBATV. Of the handful of teams lingering around the 8th spot, Detroit seems like the bet, but the post J-Smoove honeymoon seems to be wearing off and Brandon Jennings is done for the year.
Next: George Hill, MVP?
Fact or Fiction: George Hill is the Indiana Pacers’ MVP so far this season?
Donahue: Fiction, because “MVP” should be an active accomplishment, not passive, lest this award belong to Paul George. That being said, the Pacers have been much better in the limited time George Hill has been on the floor — by both the numbers and by the eye test. Statistically, Indiana is scoring 107 points per 100 with Hill on the floor, but fewer than 97 points with him out of the lineup, and the eye test shows that Hill is the Pacers’ most decisive and athletic perimeter player at both ends. He adds tempo and physicality to a team that all too often aspires to plodding. For these reasons, Hill is probably the most important Pacer for the rest of the year, but he is not the MVP so far this season. (Though, truthfully, it’s difficult to find a compelling candidate among those players who have logged heavy minutes this year.)
Medworth: Fact. He’s only played in eight games this season, and it’s been a real shame. I thought this would be a breakout year for Hill, and it still can be in the second half of the season. He has scored in double figures in each game he’s played and even in limited minutes, he quickly reminds you what a difference he can make. I give credit to the guys who have stepped up in the absence of others (i.e., Donald Sloan), but George Hill is the real MVP.
I’ll take Solo Hill with a team-leading 31.6 minutes per game — a stat most Pacers players would kill for.
Ochoa: Fiction. It’s tough to say that Hill has been the Pacers’ MVP because he’s only played in eight games. There’s no question that the Pacers look exponentially better when he’s on the court, but he hasn’t been there enough to claim such an important title like MVP. I’d give the MVP to David West. He’s the Pacers leading scorer (besides Hill, who doesn’t qualify) and grabs 7 boards a game. And his locker room presence has kept the Pacers from just giving up on the season.
Barth: Fiction. Sure, Hill is leading the team in PPG and PER (not including Shayne Whittington’s crazy team-leading PER of 23.9), but eight games played out of 47 is all you need to know. There are zero Pacers in the NBA’s top 100 in +/- this season (Rudez lands at 107). I’ll take Solo Hill with a team-leading 31.6 minutes per game, a stat most Pacers players would kill for.
Summers: I initially scoffed at this, as it is difficult to provide value while missing so many games. But then I figured if Hill isn’t the MVP, then I would have to explain why somebody else is. This train of thought led me to some dark places. Hill has made a noticeable difference, and when healthy can prevent half court sets from devolving into hot potato. So I’m just going to say fact and stop thinking about this before I start weeping.
Next: DAMO-Nation
Fact or Fiction: Damjan Rudez’s 16-point fourth-quarter explosion proves he belongs in the rotation permanently?
Donahue: Fiction. It probably proves that he has won the position battle with Chris Copeland for the year, but he remains a spread four playing out of position at the wing. (This is Frank Vogel’s sentiment, in addition to mine.) Given the paucity at the position, he might be able to hold onto the fourth wing slot on a “fully healthy” Pacer squad behind Solo/Stuckey/Miles, but Vogel will always be tempted to either tighten that rotation or use more two-point-guard lineups. His overall play doesn’t merit the long-term connotations of “permanent.” Rudez has shown promise, but if he’s going to stick in this league, it will be because of his shooting. He’s taking 62% of his shots from beyond the arc, which is probably a good indicator of his future game, but he’s hitting less than 33% on threes. That number is going to have to improve to the high-30s, before Damo becomes more asset than liability.
Medworth: Fiction. He’s going to have to be more consistent to get a permanent spot. I think he clearly has the potential and you could argue if he got more minutes, he’d become more comfortable on the court. But his performance against the Raptors was less than stellar. Especially on a night when he was given a chance to come off the bench early in the game and prove Sunday night was not a fluke.
Ochoa: Fact. Damo’s explosion the other night just proved his potential and displayed why the Pacers signed him. He can be a legitimate shooting threat when he gets a rhythm going. The problem is that you have to be in the rotation to develop a rhythm. I wouldn’t mind seeing him get more playing down throughout the rest of the season. I mean, what do the Pacers really have to lose? Try some different lineups, give some guys extra opportunities on the court and see what they can do. You never know who’s waiting for their chance to prove themselves.
Barth: Fact. It’s either Rudez or Copeland here and Bird/Vogel need to see what they really have in the Croatian Sensation in the second half of the season. Neither player really gives you anything on defense, but Rudez doesn’t turn it over as often and is shooting a better % from 3. Strangely enough, DAMO is the new Copeland.
Summers: Fiction. I think he’ll stick around in the rotation, but more by default than merit. The scoring outburst was certainly encouraging, but the most important factor here is simply the reality that his only competition for the role is Chris Copeland.
Next: Pacers, IU, Notre Dame or Butler?
Fact or Fiction: The Indiana Pacers are the best basketball team in the state of Indiana?
Donahue: Fact. “Bad” is a relative term. The Pacers — given their current state of play and health — are a mildly competitive, but “bad” NBA team. However, even “bad” NBA teams are better than 99.99999% of the basketball teams on this planet. Unless last year’s Pacers are playing for Valpo or at Ben Davis, then this year’s Pacers are the best team in Indiana.
Medworth: Fact. I’m glad that college basketball in Indiana appears to be in a better place this year but they aren’t beating the 12th place in the East, last place in the Central Division, injury-ridden Pacers. Kentucky isn’t beating the 76ers and IU is not beating the Pacers. Not today, not tomorrow, not ever. David West doesn’t have time for this discussion.
Kentucky isn’t beating the 76ers and IU is not beating the Pacers. Not today, not tomorrow, not ever. David West doesn’t have time for this discussion.
Ochoa: Fact. Although Notre Dame, IU and Butler are all having great seasons, those three teams combined might put a maximum of two players in the NBA. The Pacers are a full roster of NBA player. No college team, ever, will be better than an NBA team.
Barth: Fact. You know it’s been a trying season when this question even needs to be asked. IU is playing Colin Hartman (6′ 7″) at center and Purdue lost to Gardner-Webb in West Lafayette this season. I’d love to see the Pacers take on the Fighting Irish in some historic Indiana high school gym, but the Pacers would still be favored by at least 10 points.
Summers: Fact. This is an argument that always comes up when there is one of those all-time-great college teams, typically considered by the same people who claim the college game is better because they try really hard every game and play purely for pride, unlike those lazy, spoiled professionals. Both arguments are asinine. Any college team that would send 15 people to the pros would dominate the NCAA. The Pacers may not look like a pro team all the time, but they sure as hell would if they played Notre Dame.