Do the Indiana Pacers Offseason Moves Add Up?
By Ben Gibson
The Indiana Pacers have been busy this offseason, but do all of Larry Bird’s moves add up?
There have been plenty of hellos and more than a few goodbyes during this offseason for the Indiana Pacers. Change has been the only constant in Larry Bird’s new attempt to turn a one-time defensive juggernaut into a higher-scoring, faster-playing team.
The starting lineup will have a very different feel while the bench is also in a state of flux, but all of that begs the question: Did the Pacers improve as a team, or is this a cosmetic makeover of a fringe playoff team?
Before we answer that question ourselves, let’s look outside of our own bubble, as the CBS Sports staff recently weighed in on the Pacers decisions.
"In: Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson, Jeremy Evans, Georges NiangOut: George Hill, Ian Mahinmi, Solomon Hill, Jordan Hill (unsigned), Ty Lawson (unsigned)The pieces are nice, but they might not fit together, and even if Teague returns to his 2014-15 production, he’s not necessarily an upgrade over Hill. Larry Bird and the Pacers’ front office clearly wants to improve the offense, but they could take a huge step backward defensively. If they’re trying to run, what’s the point of adding Jefferson?Grade: C+"
Throw in Aaron Brooks, and maybe that is a B-.
And you know what? I can’t argue with the logic.
As we noted, almost all of Indiana’s moves have come at the cost of defense. Jeff Teague is a career negative in his box plus-minus and he’s paired in the backcourt with Monta Ellis, who until last year, never was positive in that statistical category.
Thaddeus Young’s isn’t a good defender, but he likely won’t be an actual liability. Jeremy Evans isn’t bad, but he’s not a player you want playing more than a few minutes a game if history is any indicator.
Jefferson has always been a scorer first and foremost, although the younger version of Al Jeff was able to guard his position well at times.
Adding It All Up
So, is this team going to be more or less the sum of its parts? The starters should overcome the defensive concerns and that unit has enough talent to make everything work.
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First off, Nate McMillan is the new sheriff in town and while his teams have been slow paced — the opposite of what Bird has claimed to be the team’s new goal — some of his offenses have ranked in the top of the NBA, and his defenses have been mediocre, but rarely terrible. Dan Burke is still around, so hopefully even with a new game plan and players, the defense doesn’t face a major regression.
Assuming the defense doesn’t plummet beyond average, the offense can improve enough to ensure the team, as a whole, is as dangerous as it was last year — or more so.
Most recently, Monta’s worst stretch was with a ball-dominant guard like Rajon Rondo, not with a player like Jeff Teague, who has shown, alongside Dennis Schröder, that he can share the rock well. It isn’t going to be a perfect fit, but as long as Monta has the same attitude he had last season, he should be able to co-exist with Teague. Last year the Pacers tried using both Monta and George Hill as primary ball-handlers, something that didn’t help either of them find a role they were fully comfortable with.
Paul George will remain, as always, Paul George, so that’s not a real concern. With George Hill, David West, and Roy Hibbert leaving over the past few seasons, there is zero question who the leader is now. The only real question is whether PG can handle being the undisputed leader, and that has mostly been answered already.
Thaddeus Young should be a plus at power forward, and even in his second year, Myles Turner will handle things at center, but the bench, and how they fit in, is more concerning than the front court of the starting lineup.
Jefferson’s pace matches well with last season’s edition of the Indiana Pacers, but if the Pacers do play faster this season, then his slow pace will be a problem. Although, as mentioned, this fear may be overblown, as both Indiana in recent years and McMillan’s past teams have played a slower brand of basketball.
But one thing pace won’t affect is that Jefferson has historically been a high-usage player. Even if he’s injecting life into Indiana’s bench, how does that affect Rodney Stuckey, Brooks, and C.J. Miles if all four of them expect to have the ball in their hands?
Weighing both the numbers and the eye-test, the bench in particular looks to be a looming disaster. There is only one ball and five players who are going to be very unfamiliar with each other when the season begins.
That isn’t to say it can’t work. Players can adapt to new roles, but even if they are all willing to sacrifice, can they be as effective as a reserve unit? I don’t know, but the numbers themselves aren’t encouraging.
If you forget Bird’s past mistakes when judging these moves, they were likely the best ones Indiana was capable of, especially on the fly.
However, on paper, they don’t fit together.
The Sum of Their Parts
All that said…
I think this team will be better than the sum of its misfitting parts.
While there are the concerns on how much the defense will regress, the offense should be taking a step forward. All five starters are players you want taking shots.
Last season, it was a hit-or-miss proposition with Ian Mahinmi on offense. This season, Myles and Thad are both offensive threats, with the expectation of the second-year center will continue to evolve as a player. The word from USA Basketball has been encouraging.
As long as Monta takes a backseat to Teague in handling the ball, the two can work together. Again, not perfect, but Ellis showed us last season he’s more concerned about winning than statistics.
The relationship of Ellis and Teague is the key to the starters being successful. The frontcourt is set and Paul George is a monster, but the two guards have shown a willingness to sacrifice for the greater good.
The bench might be a problem, but we’ve seen Indiana be successful with worse options and combinations as reserves. They will improve as the season goes on and everyone settles into their new roles.
Next: Pacers Can’t Stop Getting Guys With the Similar Names
Until the season begins, though, the Pacers are a very intriguing question that we doesn’t have a definitive answer.