Will The Indiana Pacers Offense Have Room To Work?
By Ben Gibson
Trying to figure out what the Indiana Pacers offense will look like next year is still very much an exercise in imagination. At this point we aren’t even sure who will be starting at shooting guard, small forward, and center. We do have some good guesses though.
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My best guess is it will be George Hill, Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, Paul George, and Jordan Hill as the opening night starters.
The past few years we knew exactly what roles and what parts of the court the starters would use, but going into this season there is more mystery to how things will work out. When you look at each of those projected starters’ shot charts from last season (with the exception of Paul George, I used his 2013-14 shot chart), you’ll see that there will be enough room for them to find their preferred shots.
Paul George is one of the most versatile of the group and will end up slashing to the basketball while working the arc, especially the corners for 3-pointers. He’s not afraid to pull-up from mid-range but knows not to settle too often. PG still needs to work on finishing at the rim but he’s an above average shooter from most parts of the floor. He’s barely played any time at the power forward position in his career, but he may fall into a role similar to the one we saw Danny Granger in years ago.
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George Hill will continue to attack the basket while knocking down 3-pointers (34.8% last season). He’s good from mid-range as well (48.1%), but he wisely only takes a quarter of his shots from there. If anything George Hill will find the area of the court his teammates aren’t using and start shooting from there. Here’s to hoping Aggressive George Hill™ returns for the 2015-16 season.
C.J. Miles will be the resident 3-point shooter despite only making 34.5% of his shots from that distance. Miles prefers the left side of the floor where as George Hill shoots better from the right side. Thankfully though Miles is more of a kick out 3-point shooter, only 9.1% of his 3-pointers were unassisted. Miles has the ability to slash and drive to the basket as well. Overall his effective field goal percentage in near 50%. He may not be a lights out shooter but he’s smart about the ones he takes and won’t shoot Indiana out of the game.
Monta Ellis is the mid-range shooter of the bunch and averaged 43.1% from that range last year. If he’s shooting 3-pointers it is probably a bad thing considering he was a 28.5% shooter from that range last season. But there is more to those numbers than it appears according to Mavericks.com.
"Ellis enjoyed a particularly hot start to the season, especially in the mid-range, as he shot 45.7 percent or better from the field for the first four months of the 2014-15 campaign. This included one terrific stretch in December in which he became King Midas of basketball, turning everything he touched into gold. He hit game-tyers, game-winners, and buzzer-beaters of all kinds.Ellis is generally at his best when he’s going downhill toward the rim coming off a ball-screen, ranking in the 73rd percentile in the NBA in points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. He also ranked in the 77th percentile in isolation scoring efficiency, a huge positive given the volume of late-game isolation attempts he received throughout the season. Ellis is the type of player who can always create a shot regardless of the situation simply because he’s so crafty with the ball and he’s got tremendous quickness and leaping ability. Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle both cited this as reasons multiple times during the season why Ellis was the primary fourth-quarter option. Sometimes, you need a guy who can create something out of nothing, especially when the defense ratchets up the pressure."
Ellis had a strong first four months of the season before things got weird once Rajon Rondo was thrown into the mix. The good news was Ellis bounced back with a strong playoff performance averaging 26 points a game of 46.8% shooting. However the question Monta isn’t if he’ll have enough room to operate; the question is if he’ll get enough touches to keep him satisfied.
Rounding out the assumed starters will be Jordan Hill at the center position. The good news for Indiana Pacers fans who were glad to see Roy Hibbert go is that Jordan Hill averaged 12 points a game last season, more than Hibbert had averaged since 2011. Jordan Hill finishes at the basket strongly with a 69.9% shooting percentage from that range. But Jordan Hill isn’t afraid from shooting from mid-range as well, if fact 36.8% of his shots came from over 16 feet and he made 39.5% of those shots from that range.
It doesn’t look like the five of them will have any issues finding the parts of the floor they’ve been most effective from. There aren’t major areas of overlap in those areas though my only concern is how possessions are divied up between George Hill and Monta Ellis. Paul George will be the first option of course and I expect he’ll have a usage rate between 24 and 30 percent. Last year Monta’s USG% was 27.9% and Hill’s was 23.8%, leaving very few possessions for Miles and Jordan Hill. Obviously concessions will be made by somebody, but the question is who will it be? If Monta takes them, will George Hill be the spot-up shooter he was when Lance Stephenson was controlling the ball? Can Monta handled seeing the ball less and still be happy? Do Jordan Hill and C.J. Miles just never get passed to? Will Frank Vogel lose his mind trying to make all this work while still being a strong defensive team?
There are still plenty of questions that won’t be answered until we see the Indiana Pacers in action this fall. The number of shots and who controls that ball is still to be seen but I think looking at the shot charts there will be the room for the five to operate. Of course this is all just on paper, but if the starters can accommodate each other to put themselves in their preferred roles and shooting areas, the offense just might work.