What Would a Potential Lance Stephenson Trade Look Like?

As soon as yesterday’s “WojBomb” hit the news, basketball Indiana Pacers fans exploded with excitement. No, it’s not just because of the possible return of Lance Stephenson. Rather, the fact that something — anything — interesting could finally happen to the Pacers was cause for celebration. If last season was “the struggle,” this season has been “the torment” for Pacers fans, who had finally tasted a few seasons of success after years of mediocrity.

Scott Agness and others close to the Pacers seem to think the rumor is just that – – an unsubstantiated claim with very little grounds for believability:

It’s unclear just how much bad blood exists between the Pacers and Lance at this point, but it does in fact exist. Would Lance want to come back to Indiana? Would the Pacers even want him? Could David West avoid strangling him for one more year? These are all questions that don’t appear to have answers at this point. Still, no matter how much vitriol Indiana has in their hearts towards the mercurial “eighth grader,” basketball reasons necessitate at least having the conversation.

Has anything like this ever happened before? Actually, yes. In the summer of 1996, the Pacers traded away Mark Jackson to the Denver Nuggets for Jalen Rose and Erick Dampier. Before the season was over, Indiana flipped some small assets back to Denver for Mark Jackson, and a year later they were battling against Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals.

So what would some possible Lance trades look like?

Let’s look at a few, via ESPN’s wonderful Trade Machine.

Trade #1 – Quick and Easy

• Indiana gets Lance Stephenson
• Charlotte gets C.J. Miles and Chris Copeland

Why Indiana would do this trade

Indiana would turn two fringe rotation players into a starter who has a history and continuity with their current team. Chris Copeland, despite his prominent status as one of Indy’s crowd favorites, has simply been atrocious this year, and appears to be on his way out of the rotation entirely. He plays poor defense, hasn’t been as effective on the low block as the Pacers hoped, and is a turnover machine. It appears, at this point, that Damjan Rudez is just a better, smarter, more efficient version of him, and Rudez hasn’t even been that good this season.

C.J. Miles has shown some definite flashes this season, highlighted by his 30-point effort in an overtime loss to the Sacramento Kings last week, but he has also shot poorly overall and struggled with injuries, forcing the Pacers to play other guys in his absence. The fact is that even a healthy, productive C.J. Miles was only ever intended to be a replacement for the guy Indy lost, Lance Stephenson. No matter how much ill-will resides in Larry Bird’s heart, even he would recognize that when you can flip a replacement and a non-rotation player for a guy who is clearly the best player in the trade, you probably have to do it.

Why Charlotte would do this trade

Shooting, shooting, and more shooting. The Hornets have some of the worst spacing in the league. As mediocre as C.J. Miles is in a lot of ways, he could step in as the starting shooting guard. Subjectively, Miles may also be a better fit with Kemba Walker than Lance, since he doesn’t need the ball as often in order to be effective. Copeland would add more flexibility to their front line, allowing them to play small-ball lineups around Al Jefferson. A crunch time lineup of Kemba, Miles, Kidd-Gilchrist, Copeland, and Al Jefferson would not be very good; but who knows, maybe Michael Jordan would talk himself into it? And besides, it’s not like Lance has been effecting games for them in crunch time anyways.

Likelihood: 4 out of 10  

It’s hard to believe that Michael Jordan couldn’t find any better deals around the league for Lance. Unless the Hornets feel that Lance is actively hurting their team and they need to cut their losses, this trade doesn’t really make a whole lot of basketball sense for them.

Trade #2 – Let’s Get Creative

• Indiana gets Lance Stephenson and Cody Zeller
• Charlotte gets George Hill and C.J. Miles

Why Indiana would do this trade

The Pacers would get a starting shooting guard and a future replacement for David West in Cody Zeller. While it would hurt to part with hometown hero George Hill, his contract is seen around the league as being too steep for what he brings to the table. They would also be receiving another hometown hero back in the trade, and one can instantly envision the Fieldhouse being flooded with Cody Zeller jerseys. At the end of the day, the upgrade to Lance Stephenson is enough to offset the slight downgrade from George Hill to C.J. Watson.

Selfishly, this would also keep me from anymore moronic “George Hill isn’t a good point guard because he doesn’t get a lot of assists” arguments on twitter, but I digress.

Why Charlotte would do this trade

Even though he has spent much of his career as a point guard, many around the league feel that George Hill is really more of an undersized shooting guard than a natural point guard. While a back court of Kemba and Hill would be on the small side, Hill would definitely add spacing and control to the offensive side without taking away that much defensively. He’s a better 3-point shooter than Lance and when he chooses to create, he doesn’t need 9 seconds and 11 dribbles in order to set up a crossover or behind the back pass. Depending on how Charlotte wanted to play, they might even be able to play C.J. Miles at small forward and eke two starters out of the deal.

Likelihood of this trade: 3.5 out of 10

The Pacers could also give Charlotte the choice of Cody Zeller or Noah Vonleh – whichever guy Charlotte liked less – to include in the deal, but this trade would probably rock the boat too much for both teams. Again, Charlotte would really have to despise Lance Stephenson in order to make a trade this lopsided.

Trade #3 – Now We’re Just Being Stupid

• Indiana gets Lance Stephenson, Gerald Henderson, and Cody Zeller
• Charlotte gets David West, Luis Scola, and C.J. Miles

Why Indiana would do this trade

They wouldn’t. Even if Charlotte threw in a first-round pick. This trade is dumb. But hey, at least we found ONE trade that Hollinger likes for the Hornets, right?

Why Charlotte would do this trade

They would turn two guys they dislike and one guy who is an unknown into three legitimately helpful players that all fit needs. All three Pacers would space the floor in Charlotte and work well off the ball around Big Al and Kemba.

Likelihood of this trade: 0.1 out of 10

Hey, anything could happen, right?

Final Thoughts

As fun as it is to look at scenarios in which Lance Stephenson would return to Indiana, the reality is that unless the Hornets just really hate him, there aren’t many trades that make that much sense from a purely basketball perspective. Yes, their spacing is atrocious and Lance has only (to this point) exacerbated that problem. But if the Hornets look at their team reasonably and objectively, C.J. Miles and Chris Copeland won’t really move the needle much for them.

Then again, Michael Jordan is running the team. Who says objectivity is part of the equation?

The lesson, as always, is that Larry Bird knows best. (via @its_whitney)