Indiana Pacers Should Be Starting C.J. Watson

Indiana Pacers coach Frank Vogel adopted a new starting lineup last week. To say he actually had a defined starting lineup in the injured-ravaged early season is probably a bit disingenuous; Roy Hibbert and Solomon Hill were the only two guys on the roster who seemed to be his first choices to put on the floor.

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Nevertheless, the injuries meant that Donald Sloan had been the first-team throughout the early season. Even now, Solomon Hill is the only player on the team with more starts (all 21 games) than Sloan (18 starts).

Before the team went up against the Trail Blazers, however, Vogel eschewed the game-managing point-guard stylings of Sloan in favor of the combo-guard hijinks of Rodney Stuckey. The rawest of the numbers defining that decision — the team’s win/loss record — don’t look good.

Sloan was the guy who got the team to 5-7, even as David West, George Hill, and C.J. Watson sat out every game with various injuries. Often, several other key members of the rotation — C.J. Miles and Stuckey most commonly — were sidelined. Compare that to the team’s 0-4 record since Stuckey took Sloan’s place.

Simply looking at that record, though, is unfair.

The Pacers have outscored opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions while C.J. Watson has been on the court this season. Something is going right while he is on the floor.

Both Sloan and Stuckey have their — vast — limitations commanding the offense, and neither has looked like anything approaching a long-term solution at point guard. That fact was obvious before the season, and it has played out on the court regardless of the win/loss results while each has started at point guard.

But something else is more obvious: C.J. Watson is a better point guard than both and should be starting.

For one, the Indiana Pacers have played better with Watson on the floor since his return to action than with either of these other guys. Per NBA.com, the Pacers have scored 98.5 points per 100 possessions during Watson’s 165 minutes this year so far. That isn’t a good output, really, but it is a better than the team’s overall rate of 97.2 points per 100. It is also better than the scoring output with Sloan on the floor (96.1/100) and Stuckey (95.1/100, though many of his 354 minutes have not come at the point guard spot).

In sum: The Pacers have scored slightly better, albeit not encouragingly well, with Watson on the floor this year.

The more-glaring numbers, however, come on defense, where Indiana has allowed a meager 93.8 points/100 with Watson on the floor compared to an embarrassingly 105.0/100 with Sloan and 107.8/100 with Stuckey. It should be noted that Watson’s time on the court has often come against opponent second units, which are less potent generally than starting fives, but the differential is Grand Canyon vast and significant even taking in all the nuances of when they players have been on the court.

Here is the quick-hitter context to take away from all these numbers: The Pacers have outscored opponents by 4.7 points/100 possessions while C.J. Watson has been on the court this season. And this has happened even though Indiana is 1-6 in games Watson has played while losing by an average of 10 points per game. So while there may not be much in Watson’s individual stat line that says he is the clear-cut best option, something is going right while he is on the floor.

But much more important than the individual numbers of Watson vs. Sloan vs. Stuckey, is the fact that the Pacers simply need to start games better. Something much change and turning to Watson — who has played with West and Hibbert more than any other wing player on this team — is the common-sense option.

Watson is the best point guard on the roster — at least until George Hill returns — and he should be starting. Put him on the court next to West and Hibbert.

Consider this: No team has played worse than the Indiana Pacers in first quarters this year. And that includes the Philadelphia 76ers for crissakes — a franchise that is actively putting a terrible product on the floor in an attempt to ensure they lose 70 games or more.

According to NBA.com the Pacers have been outscored by 18.4 points per 100 possessions in first quarter this year. Philly is next worse, getting outscored by 17.3 per 100. Third worst is the Minnesota Timberwolves at 11.9.

To recap: You have the Pacers then a team trying to lose and then, doing 6 points better per 100 possession, you have the Wolves. That is flabbergasting and impossible to believe even given the injury problems Indiana has suffered through.

While that is a team-wide issue that you can’t blame on any point guard, C.J. Watson has only played 24 first-quarter minutes so far this year. So he is the one guy you can’t really fault at all (especially since Indiana has outscored the opposition in those minutes). And that gives Watson a leg up under that he-can’t-be-any-worse theory.

I believe that Frank Vogel knows C.J. Watson is the common-sense solution here, and he was probably tempted to go to him when he decided to excommunicate Sloan from the rotation. Publicly, Vogel claimed the chance was for defensive reasons and Sloan’s poor defensive rating gives credence to that. But perhaps Vogel had other, softer reasons for moving Stuckey to the one and keeping Chris Copeland on the court.

Maybe he sees Copeland and Stuckey as guys who “earned” their place in the starting lineup do to the early-season results while Watson is a new addition who both hasn’t put in his time this season and is professional enough to not have any feelings hurt. This wouldn’t vibe with his decision to banish Sloan, really, but whatever. Logical consistency isn’t a requirement of the job.

If that — or some other equally defensible logic — is why he went to a perimeter of Stuckey/Solomon Hill/Cope then that’s fine, and Vogel knows better than most how much this soft stuff can derail a rotation. Last year’s team cratered, and such explanations are what most feel like were the root of the problems. Such decision making is defendable.

But at some point, that isn’t a good enough reason and the choice clearly hasn’t worked. Vogel knows this and sees a change coming soon.

My advice: Watson is the best point guard on the roster — at least until George Hill returns — and he should be starting. Put him on the court next to West and Hibbert. Maybe it doesn’t get better, and maybe this team will be 10-30 before long no matter who is out there, but just get back to basics. Play the team’s best point guard at point guard.

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C.J. Watson Should Be Starting

By Jared Wade | Dec 11, 2014