Pacers vs Nuggets: Gold Rush in Indianapolis
By Ben Gibson
Indiana Pacers (3-6) vs Denver Nuggets (1-6)
The Indiana Pacers are streaking! The trip to South Beach on Wednesday yielded a win in the Pacers’ best performance of the year. So how is Indiana doing it? For starters it helps when you have the league’s best rim defender in Roy Hibbert. Not only that, the size advantage helped Indiana win the battle of the glass, 58-23. In the game in Miami, Indiana kept taking away possessions from the high-powered offense of the Heat while giving the Pacers own offense more chances to score. When the offense is only shooting at 37.5% as they did on Wednesday, you have to grab those extra chances.
The Nuggets don’t have the same high-powered offense that Miami had but might play as bad as defensive team. Denver has a 108 defensive rating and an average offensive rating at 100. Part of this might have to do with a schedule against Portland and Sacamento (played both twice) as well as Cleveland and Oklahoma City. The lone win came against the Detroit Pistons in their opener. One of the biggest problems is the starting five just aren’t in sync: They’re -35.7 in 40 minutes of play this season. That… that isn’t good. At least the Pacers current starting lineup can say they aren’t giving up points when they’re on the floor. When you look at the four factors, only in eFG% do they not rank in the top half of the league. It is on defense where they truly struggle as they rank in the bottom of the league in opponents eFG%, TOV, and their FT/FGA rate. Denver has to start playing better defense without fouling so much. It is simple — and these are small sample sizes — but it is either clamping down defensively or trying to play a faster pact to take advantage of the offense, but even then they need to find high-quality shots instead of settling. I haven’t watched them enough to definitively say this is either a player or schematic issues, or just a small sample size, but I’d tend to go with the theory of they just haven’t settled in yet because when you look at last year’s numbers, they did better in almost every category.
If you look at a Nuggets shot chart, you’ll see that 75% of their shots are inside of the arc but they aren’t shooting well. Opposing defenses can clog the lane and take their chances when they do try to expand their shooting. The Nuggets are extremely dependent on scoring in the paint. In fact they lead the league with 63.6 percent of their points coming from there.
Despite those basic numbers, I think everything up until the end of December should have the disclaimer of small sample size theater. Take Take Solomon Hill for example: He started off the year barely making an impact but now he looks to have earned a starting line up spot at least until George Hill and C.J. Watson are back. For younger players like Hill, or ever for an entire team like the Nuggets, it is still early to assume something is entirely broken or going to work long-term. Right now I think Denver could be a game away from turning things in the right direction. I don’t think Brian Shaw is on the hot seat yet, but the Nuggets have to start picking up wins soon to keep him off that seat.
Who to watch on the Nuggets: Kenneth Faried, the Manimal, hasn’t been playing as well as he did a year ago, but no one on the Denver roster really has. Tonight he’ll be dealing with Luis Scola and it would be a favorable matchup for him to turn the corner on his season. However he may also be having to deal with Roy Hibbert as well as I imagine if the matchup proves unfavorable, or if Scola does well and funnels Faried to Hibbert, then it may not be an easy of night for Faried.
Who to watch on the Pacers: Solomon Hill had his first single-digit scoring game against the Heat as he shot the ball very poorly (1 of 12) but played defense well. Getting back on track after a bad game is a box you want to tick off in a player’s development and Hill has a chance to do that tonight.
Milestone Watch: Lavoy Allen needs 7 points to reach 1,000 career points. Luis Scola had 3 assists against Miami, giving him 1,000 in his career.
The Big Question
In a battle of streak vs “streak”, which one is broken? Indiana got a confidence boost by beating the Heat in Miami while Denver is looking to right the ship with a win. The Pacers are at home, so they should be favored, but I don’t think this Nuggets team is as bad as their (1-6) record.
Betting Line
Indiana is a -3.5 favorite on a 196.5 over/under. I like the Pacers to win at home, but I’ll take the under on points.
One Random Thing
Brian Shaw was an assistant coach under Frank Vogel before taking over the Nuggets coaching job last season. I imagine a losing season last year and a rough start this year might have given him a few gray hairs.
