Pacers vs Heat: Not the Same Rivalry
By Ben Gibson
Indiana Pacers (2-6) at Miami Heat (5-2)
Usually a conference finals rematch would be one of the biggest games on the NBA schedule. Usually. But with no Lebron James in Miami, and most of the Indiana roster hurting, that might have something to do with the lack of hype around the Pacers visit to Florida to play the Heat. There just isn’t the same level of anger and hate that their was a year ago nor will either team be talking about getting the first seed in the Eastern Conference.
There is still a win on the line Wednesday night and the Pacers will again need to catch a few breaks to find a W in Miami. In the Heat’s last game they had their best shooting night of the season, knocking down 55.3% of their shots to beat the Dallas Mavericks. Luol Deng led the way with 30 points. That sort of shooting isn’t a fluke either: The starting unit of Deng, Chris Bosh, Norris Cole, Dwyane Wade and Shawne Williams is shooting at a 50% clip. Miami has relied more on ball movement and jump shooting than they did a year ago as not having the world’s best player forces you to play smarter, more efficient basketball if you want to win. The weakness of that starting line up, despite the 116 offensive rating, is the 115 defensive rating. The plan for Miami is simple: Sacrifice size for speed and offense. The Pacers offense isn’t exactly terrifying, but playing a weak defense isn’t going to hurt them either. Roy Hibbert will face some combination of Williams, Bosh, and Chris Anderson and none of those guys is particularly suited for stopping a big fella like Hibbert. Tyson Chandler had 16 points and 15 rebounds against the Heat and Hibbert could be poised to do the same. The concern for the Pacers is if Luis Scola is completely incapable of slowing down Deng or Bosh in any way, then Hibbert will have to stray further from the basket and be less effective on defense.
Despite being old and busted, Wade is still a threat every night as he averages 19.7 points a game. It may not be the Flying Death Machine, but the Heat’s offense is still powerful. Solomon Hill will have his hands full trying to keep Wade contained.
This also is Danny Granger’s first game against Indiana as a member of the Miami Heat. This has to be a strange moment as he’s now on the other side of one of the better NBA rivalries in recent years.
"“It was intense, I’m not going to lie,” he said of his time with Indiana. “We did not like the Miami Heat. It was nothing personal, that’s the way it was. They had beat us a few years in a row and it was kind of that mountain that we were trying to get over at that time. It was a lot of dislike, I’ll just leave it at that. I’m sure they didn’t like us either."
Who to watch on the Heat: Chris Bosh has averaged 23.6 points a game this season thanks to his ability to spread the floor. He’s an above average shooter that creates mismatches with his opponents. He’s going to want to keep away from Hibbert, but he’ll be giving the Pacers nightmares on defense as Scola is a terrible defender and Solomon Hill would be a little undersized to be taking on Bosh all night. Seeing how Miami’s Erik Spoelstra and Indiana’s Frank Vogel juggle assignment will be the chess match you need to keep an eye on.
Who to watch on the Pacers: Solomon Hill won’t have an easy time dealing with the likes of Deng, Bosh, and Wade, depending on the play, but he’s has to step up defensively. Miami will win a track meet, making it imperative that Solo defend competently. If Miami is allowed to drive to the basket with little trouble then Hibbert can’t get into position to block shots. Solo also needs to do a little better than his 12 points a game average against the league’s 12th ranked offense. I only mention Bosh and Deng, despite being forwards, because I think we’ll see Miami trying to create mismatches throughout the night to throw off the normal scheme of Frank Vogel’s defense. Even if he’s just going to cover Wade, I don’t think we’ve seen enough from Solomon to expect him to be able to hold down the future Hall of Famer.
Milestone Watch: Lavoy Allen needs 13 points to reach 1,000 career points while Luis Scola is 3 assists away from his 1,000th.
The Big Question
Will Roy Hibbert’s presence in the paint force the Heat to change their attack as it has in the past? Hibbert will also be a big factor on defense as well as we’ve seen how he’s slowed down the normal driving attacks of the Heat. This year Miami has 29.1 drives per a game for about 15 of their points, one of the higher rates of attack in the league. Indiana must take away the driving baskets and force Miami to take their chances shooting from the field.
Betting Line
Miami is a -8.5 favorite on a 187 over/under. I think the Pacers can cover the spread and while the over/under sounds about right, I’ll take the over.