Assisting the 17-Foot Assassin: How David West Scores

How does David West get his points? Not usually by himself. Last year 66.8 percent of the 17-foot Assassin’s made shots came off assists.

This matters a whole lot without Paul George and Lance Stephenson in the line up. Last year out of the 298 assisted FGM that West took, that duo assisted on 158 of them, or 52 percent. West tends to let Roy Hibbert dominate the paint and moves out of the way to allow the wings to drive inside. Getting out of the way also opens the door for him to hit the shot that earned him his nickname.

The power forward makes his way up to the elbow and proceeds to knock down shots at a 52 percent rate — that is one reason why Grantland’s NBA Preview has David West as one of the top 20 shooters in the NBA and  ESPN ranked him the 60th best player in the NBA this year.

Our lovely graphic over there from Nylon Calculus shows West takes nearly a third of his shots from just inside the arc.

But all this comes back to the fact that West’s shots typically come off a pass. Last year West was able to take advantage of a pair of wings that had no problem going into the paint and creating contact to get their points. But they’re gone and they’re replacements are stepping into slightly different roles than they had played before. Even last year their effect was noticeable.

When George was on the court, David West had 1.05 points per possession. Without them, his PPP dropped to 0.94. I didn’t get to watch all of the preseason game against Minnesota, but he did miss two shots from 20 feet. I don’t know how those shots came about, and it is much too small of a sample size to make much of. The PPP sample size was small as well, coming from only 30 minutes of play.

The Pacers were 23rd in the NBA last year in offensive rating and right now even maintaining that could be an issue. The question still remains how the Pacers can still work to get West his now team-high average of 14 points a game, if not more.

Last year George carried the top load 21.7 PPG, while Lance was third with 13.8 points a game. Now it is Roy Hibbert who will come into the year is Indiana’s second-leading scorer with 10.8 PPG. Considering both men need help to get their points — 58 percent of Roy’s were assisted — this is a problem.

Before we get into the replacements, let’s not forget George Hill.

Yes, George Hill is the point guard, but his role hasn’t been the creator. He averaged 3.6 assists a game at a 17.2 assist rate. He certainly has some control on the offense, but his role wasn’t that of a traditional point guard. Consider that he ranked 66th in usage for point guards last year. Hill worked well with West on the floor, but George and Stephenson played large rolls as well. The George Hill getting aggressive narrative isn’t going to change that a lot either, at least not in the assist department. He’ll have to shoot more this year, but I don’t know if that will indirectly lead to assists.

This year it will be some combination of C.J. Miles, Chris Copeland, Solomon Hill, and Rodney Stuckey coming in on the wings.  Copeland rode the bench last year, so when we talk about his numbers we’ll actually be using his “rookie” year stats from 2012-13 with the New York Knicks, as he played a bigger role and I assume he will have a bigger role with the Pacers this year as well.

We didn’t see a lot of Solomon Hill either last year, but he’s a second year player and we’ll have to see how he develops. The two more proven commodities are Miles and Stuckey. Both have plenty of NBA experience and have shown the ability to carry a fair load offensively, but this year they may be asked to do more than they ever had before in their careers.

Stuckey has the most experience as a front line starter, even playing the most minutes of any player for the Detroit Pistons in 2009-10. Comparing the players is a tough task due to the different roles they’ve played with their respective teams, but we have to start somewhere.

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Chart provided by Basketball-Reference.com (view original table)

Per Game

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: (view original table)

Looking at those numbers it is pretty clear that whoever is coming in is the type of player that is used to looking for their own shot first before passing the ball. George and Stephenson had higher per a game numbers as well as assist percentages than any of those four players.

Coming out on top of the four is Stuckey, but there is a problem if he ends up on the floor with David West. Stuckey also enjoy the mid-range game, though a little closer. Either way the two would have to find a way to adjust their spacing as neither particularly is a driver when you look at the percentages.

C.J. Miles may actually be better suited to work with West as he stretches the floor out beyond the 3-point arc. But again, his assist rate is worse the Stuckey’s. Copeland and Solomon Hill aren’t great assist options either, but they do space out the floor more for West.

No matter which pair of players they fill out the starting rotation with, it may still be a struggle to get West open looks on the floor. If fact, 89.9 percent of his made field goals from 18-24 feet were assisted. If West is to continue to be the 17-foot Assassin, he will need he from his teammates.

That’s just how David West scores.

If we’re going off history, none of the possible new starting wings are going to be able to that for him. Unless we see that change it is going to be even harder for the Indiana Pacers to find those points.