Mar 19, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Indiana Pacers small forward Paul George (24) controls the ball against New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony (7) during the third quarter of a game at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks defeated the Pacers 92-86. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Darren Rovell: Pacers to Lose $17.5 Million Due to Paul George Injury

Darren Rovell is Darren Rovell, and he has written a piece trying to estimate how much money the Pacers will lose as a result of Paul George’s injury.

The total he came up with is $17,580,000 — an oddly specific total for guesswork, but one that may be in line with reality.

Here is the full financial breakdown.

Starting at Game 42, the Pacers will get back $154,146 per game missed for George, per the terms of the league’s insurance policy. That adds up to $6.32 million. So assuming George misses the entire regular season, the Pacers will be out $9.48 million on George’s salary alone.

Then there’s ticket sales. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver projects that without George, the team will go six games over .500 (44-38). So looking at Indiana’s historical attendance based on that record, it can be assumed that the team will host at least 1,500 fewer fans per game, which equals about $2.5 million in ticket sales. Then tack on roughly $600,000 in lost merchandise and concession sales.

The bigger ticket loss will be playing in fewer playoff games at home, assuming the Pacers won’t advance as far as they would have if they had George. Let’s assume the Pacers now get only two playoff home games instead of advancing to at least the Eastern Conference finals and getting eight. At an average of $750,000 per game in net profit, that’s $4.5 million. On the positive side, NBA sources confirm that the Pacers secured most of the high-end suite renewals in the run up to the playoffs last season, meaning the big dollars there are protected from George’s injury.

Finally, there’s a drop of $500,000 in sponsorship and marketing due to the fact that a little of the buzz is gone from Indy

The thing that stands out the most is that Rovell is docking the Pacers $4.5 million for lost playoff receipts. This is presuming Indiana makes the first round of the playoffs without George, and loses in four or five games.

Though if they miss the playoffs altogether, add another $1.5 million the final total, as they would get no home games in the postseason, a financial benefit that Rovell values at $750,000 (which seems about right and maybe a bit conservative if anything).

So, yeah, there is quibbling to be done over this and other math here, but this is quick and dirty breakdown of what we know: Indiana will suffer heavily both on and off the court from the loss of their star.

 

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