Breaking Down Danny Granger's Shooting Improvement

Danny Granger has made 26 of his past 52 shots. By using my fingers and toes, I’ve discovered that that equals 50% from the field. If you go back even further, to include his past six games, he has made 45 of his past 95 shots. That’s a little worse but still good for 47.4%, which is almost 3 percentage points above his career average FG%. Better still, he has been sticking his threes of late. In that six-game stretch, he has his 14 of his 31 shots (45.2%) from behind the arc. Sharp shooting.

While this is all good news, his season-long numbers are so heavily weighted down by his early season struggles that they remain gross. Danny’s eFG% is only 44.1%. His career average is 48.6%, so he reamins s 4.5 percentage points below what we should expect. Given that his low point this season was after 7 games, when his eFG% was 36.4%. however, it’s notable that he has picked up about 7.7 percentage points over his past 11 outings.

As far as where on the court he is hitting from, according to Hoopdata, Danny is still shooting below average at the rim and in the mid-range. His shooting rates at the rim, from 10-15 feet and from 16-23 feet are 1.4, 1.7, and 2,8 points against league average, respectively.

Again, things are trending northward, however. Since his low point after game 7, Granger picked up 15.7 percentage points at the rim, 10.7 percentage points from 10-15, and 16.3 percentage points from 16-23 feet. (The only place he’s fallen back is from 3-9 feet, where he’s given back 16.6 points. However, he’s still shooting well there objectively, with 47.1% success rate vs. a league average of 40.0%.)

Interestingly, this change in effectiveness has come without much of a change in shot selection. He has hoisted up at least 13 shots in each of his last 6 games and the location distribution has held pretty steady. Since that low point after the first 7 games, he has increased his shooting volume about 2.5% from the 3-9 range and 0.7% at the rim. But those are negligible changes within this sample size.

In short, Granger’s recent shooting improvement isn’t coming from a better shot selection.

It’s coming from better shot making.

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