Follow Up: A Special End of the Year

On Valentine’s Day, I outlined how I thought the Pacers would end the year.  In it, I said that it should be a special end of the year, as Frank Vogel promised, and that they’d finish with 42-wins.

So, How are Frank and I doing?

Eh…not so hot.  The blue is what I projected, and the red line are the actual results thus far.  The Pacers have six more losses than I projected at this point.  To give you an idea of how spectacularly bad my forecasting was, there have only been 12 games during this time frame.

Still, every good forecaster knows that his forecast is probably wrong.  And the following comments show the risk:

As should have been apparent from the opening paragraphs of this piece, I still don’t entirely trust this team.   There are a lot of good things happening right now, but the Vogel-led Pacers have yet to face real, sustained difficulties.  We don’t really know how Vogel will respond, and the players themselves haven’t exactly established themselves as lion-hearted.

If this noses over, this is how it will happen.  The Pacers will hit the road at the start of March and drop all three games.  That, in-and-of itself, is understandable.  The Houston win I have is probably the riskiest one in the entire projection.  But, then, they come home and drop a tough one to a Philly team I can’t quite get a handle on.  Back on the road with the pressure mounting, and all bets are off.  What I have projected as an 8-7 stretch could turn into a 4-11 or 3-12 nightmare.

Will this happen?  No.  I really don’t think so, but this is the stretch where I’d be holding my breath.

Well, I’m not holding my breath any more.  I’m just along for the ride at this point.

Lead on, Mr. Toad.

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