Pelton’s Crystal Ball

Early March brought a lot of excitement to Pacerland when Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus let it be known that he had begun working as a consultant for the team. I was overjoyed to see the Pacers giving advanced statistics a larger place in their organization. It is hard to tell what, if anything, Pelton might have contributed so far, but I am hoping that we will see his fingerprints on some of the Pacer’s moves come Draft Night.

I noticed today at The Painted Area that Pelton made some unique projections at the beginning of the year, all of which turned out to be correct.

Hollinger and Dwyer were, like me, in the vicinity of .500, but check the five biggest outliers from Pelton, whose predicted records were based on his SCHOENE system of player projections:

Toronto UNDER 41.5 – W (Predicted: 32-50 / Actual: 40-42)
Detroit UNDER 41.5 – W (Predicted: 33-49 / Actual: 27-55)
Milwaukee OVER 25.5 – W (Predicted: 34-48 / Actual: 46-36)
Memphis OVER 27.5 – W (Predicted: 45-37 / Actual: 40-42)
LA Lakers UNDER 62.5 – W (Predicted: 54-28 / Actual: 57-25)

Not only did Pelton sweep his way to 5-0, but SCHOENE found some big winners. Other than the Raptors, these weren’t even close – the other four won by at least 5 games, and three of them were double-digit winners. I think that KP2 earned himself a free lunch at Samurai Sam’s based on SCHOENE’s impressive work.

As was noted in the post, the accuracy of his projection for the Memphis Grizzlies was probably the most impressive. I am not sure how this kind of information could be used to help the Pacers, but it is nice to have Kevin Pelton’s excellent skill level reinforced as we head into this off-season. You can also keep an eye on his picks for the 2010 Truehoop Stat Geek Smackdown.

Also seen at Hickory High

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